Ph\u00e2n t\u00edch \u0111\u1ea7u t\u01b0 c\u01a1 b\u1ea3n, trong k\u1ebf to\u00e1n v\u00e0 t\u00e0i ch\u00ednh, l\u00e0 ph\u00e2n t\u00edch b\u00e1o c\u00e1o t\u00e0i ch\u00ednh c\u1ee7a doanh nghi\u1ec7p (th\u01b0\u1eddng \u0111\u1ec3 ph\u00e2n t\u00edch t\u00e0i s\u1ea3n, n\u1ee3 ph\u1ea3i tr\u1ea3 v\u00e0 thu nh\u1eadp c\u1ee7a doanh nghi\u1ec7p); S\u1ee9c kh\u1ecfe doanh nghi\u1ec7p; \u0110\u1ed1i th\u1ee7 c\u1ea1nh tranh v\u00e0 th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng. N\u00f3 c\u0169ng xem x\u00e9t t\u00ecnh tr\u1ea1ng chung c\u1ee7a n\u1ec1n kinh t\u1ebf v\u00e0 c\u00e1c y\u1ebfu t\u1ed1 bao g\u1ed3m l\u00e3i su\u1ea5t, s\u1ea3n xu\u1ea5t, thu nh\u1eadp, vi\u1ec7c l\u00e0m, GDP, nh\u00e0 \u1edf, s\u1ea3n xu\u1ea5t v\u00e0 qu\u1ea3n l\u00fd. C\u00f3 hai c\u00e1ch ti\u1ebfp c\u1eadn c\u01a1 b\u1ea3n c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c s\u1eed d\u1ee5ng: ph\u00e2n t\u00edch t\u1eeb d\u01b0\u1edbi l\u00ean v\u00e0 ph\u00e2n t\u00edch t\u1eeb tr\u00ean xu\u1ed1ng. C\u00e1c thu\u1eadt ng\u1eef n\u00e0y \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c s\u1eed d\u1ee5ng \u0111\u1ec3 ph\u00e2n bi\u1ec7t ph\u00e2n t\u00edch \u0111\u00f3 v\u1edbi c\u00e1c lo\u1ea1i ph\u00e2n t\u00edch \u0111\u1ea7u t\u01b0 kh\u00e1c, ch\u1eb3ng h\u1ea1n nh\u01b0 \u0111\u1ecbnh l\u01b0\u1ee3ng v\u00e0 k\u1ef9 thu\u1eadt.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Ph\u00e2n t\u00edch c\u01a1 b\u1ea3n \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c th\u1ef1c hi\u1ec7n tr\u00ean d\u1eef li\u1ec7u l\u1ecbch s\u1eed v\u00e0 hi\u1ec7n t\u1ea1i, nh\u01b0ng v\u1edbi m\u1ee5c ti\u00eau \u0111\u01b0a ra d\u1ef1 b\u00e1o t\u00e0i ch\u00ednh. C\u00f3 m\u1ed9t s\u1ed1 m\u1ee5c ti\u00eau c\u00f3 th\u1ec3:<\/p>\n\n\n\n
– \u0110\u1ec3 ti\u1ebfn h\u00e0nh \u0111\u1ecbnh gi\u00e1 c\u1ed5 phi\u1ebfu c\u1ee7a c\u00f4ng ty v\u00e0 d\u1ef1 \u0111o\u00e1n s\u1ef1 ph\u00e1t tri\u1ec3n gi\u00e1 c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 x\u1ea3y ra c\u1ee7a n\u00f3;<\/p>\n\n\n\n
– D\u1ef1 b\u00e1o k\u1ebft qu\u1ea3 kinh doanh;<\/p>\n\n\n\n
– \u0110\u1ec3 \u0111\u00e1nh gi\u00e1 qu\u1ea3n l\u00fd v\u00e0 \u0111\u01b0a ra quy\u1ebft \u0111\u1ecbnh kinh doanh n\u1ed9i b\u1ed9 v\u00e0 \/ ho\u1eb7c \u0111\u1ec3 t\u00ednh to\u00e1n r\u1ee7i ro t\u00edn d\u1ee5ng c\u1ee7a m\u00ecnh;<\/p>\n\n\n\n
– \u0110\u1ec3 t\u00ecm hi\u1ec3u gi\u00e1 tr\u1ecb n\u1ed9i t\u1ea1i c\u1ee7a c\u1ed5 phi\u1ebfu.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Hai m\u00f4 h\u00ecnh ph\u00e2n t\u00edch<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n C\u00f3 hai ph\u01b0\u01a1ng ph\u00e1p c\u01a1 b\u1ea3n m\u00e0 c\u00e1c nh\u00e0 \u0111\u1ea7u t\u01b0 d\u1ef1a v\u00e0o khi m\u1ee5c ti\u00eau c\u1ee7a ph\u00e2n t\u00edch l\u00e0 x\u00e1c \u0111\u1ecbnh n\u00ean mua c\u1ed5 phi\u1ebfu n\u00e0o v\u00e0 \u1edf m\u1ee9c gi\u00e1 n\u00e0o:<\/p>\n\n\n\n 1. Ph\u00e2n t\u00edch c\u01a1 b\u1ea3n:<\/strong> C\u00e1c nh\u00e0 ph\u00e2n t\u00edch cho r\u1eb1ng th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 \u0111\u1ecbnh gi\u00e1 sai ch\u1ee9ng kho\u00e1n trong ng\u1eafn h\u1ea1n nh\u01b0ng gi\u00e1 “ch\u00ednh x\u00e1c” cu\u1ed1i c\u00f9ng s\u1ebd \u0111\u1ea1t \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c. L\u1ee3i nhu\u1eadn c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c th\u1ef1c hi\u1ec7n b\u1eb1ng c\u00e1ch mua ho\u1eb7c b\u00e1n ch\u1ee9ng kho\u00e1n \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c \u0111\u1ecbnh gi\u00e1 sai v\u00e0 sau \u0111\u00f3 ch\u1edd \u0111\u1ee3i th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng nh\u1eadn ra “sai l\u1ea7m” c\u1ee7a n\u00f3 v\u00e0 \u0111\u1ecbnh gi\u00e1 l\u1ea1i ch\u1ee9ng kho\u00e1n.<\/p>\n\n\n\n 2. Ph\u00e2n t\u00edch k\u1ef9 thu\u1eadt:<\/strong> C\u00e1c nh\u00e0 ph\u00e2n t\u00edch xem x\u00e9t xu h\u01b0\u1edbng v\u00e0 m\u1ee9c gi\u00e1 v\u00e0 tin r\u1eb1ng nh\u1eefng thay \u0111\u1ed5i xu h\u01b0\u1edbng x\u00e1c nh\u1eadn s\u1ef1 thay \u0111\u1ed5i t\u00e2m l\u00fd. C\u00e1c m\u1eabu bi\u1ec3u \u0111\u1ed3 gi\u00e1 d\u1ec5 nh\u1eadn bi\u1ebft c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c t\u00ecm th\u1ea5y do ph\u1ea3n \u1ee9ng c\u1ea3m x\u00fac c\u1ee7a c\u00e1c nh\u00e0 \u0111\u1ea7u t\u01b0 \u0111\u1ed1i v\u1edbi bi\u1ebfn \u0111\u1ed9ng gi\u00e1. C\u00e1c nh\u00e0 ph\u00e2n t\u00edch k\u1ef9 thu\u1eadt ch\u1ee7 y\u1ebfu \u0111\u00e1nh gi\u00e1 c\u00e1c xu h\u01b0\u1edbng v\u00e0 ph\u1ea1m vi l\u1ecbch s\u1eed \u0111\u1ec3 d\u1ef1 \u0111o\u00e1n bi\u1ebfn \u0111\u1ed9ng gi\u00e1 trong t\u01b0\u01a1ng lai.<\/p>\n\n\n\n C\u00e1c nh\u00e0 \u0111\u1ea7u t\u01b0 c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 s\u1eed d\u1ee5ng m\u1ed9t ho\u1eb7c c\u1ea3 hai ph\u01b0\u01a1ng ph\u00e1p b\u1ed5 sung n\u00e0y \u0111\u1ec3 ch\u1ecdn c\u1ed5 phi\u1ebfu. V\u00ed d\u1ee5, nhi\u1ec1u nh\u00e0 \u0111\u1ea7u t\u01b0 c\u01a1 b\u1ea3n s\u1eed d\u1ee5ng c\u00e1c ch\u1ec9 b\u00e1o k\u1ef9 thu\u1eadt \u0111\u1ec3 quy\u1ebft \u0111\u1ecbnh \u0111i\u1ec3m v\u00e0o v\u00e0 ra. T\u01b0\u01a1ng t\u1ef1, m\u1ed9t t\u1ef7 l\u1ec7 l\u1edbn c\u00e1c nh\u00e0 \u0111\u1ea7u t\u01b0 k\u1ef9 thu\u1eadt s\u1eed d\u1ee5ng c\u00e1c ch\u1ec9 b\u00e1o c\u01a1 b\u1ea3n \u0111\u1ec3 gi\u1edbi h\u1ea1n nh\u00f3m c\u1ed5 phi\u1ebfu c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 c\u1ee7a h\u1ecd \u0111\u1ed1i v\u1edbi c\u00e1c c\u00f4ng ty “t\u1ed1t”.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Vi\u1ec7c l\u1ef1a ch\u1ecdn ph\u00e2n t\u00edch ch\u1ee9ng kho\u00e1n \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c x\u00e1c \u0111\u1ecbnh b\u1edfi ni\u1ec1m tin c\u1ee7a nh\u00e0 \u0111\u1ea7u t\u01b0 v\u00e0o c\u00e1c m\u00f4 h\u00ecnh kh\u00e1c nhau cho “c\u00e1ch th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng ch\u1ee9ng kho\u00e1n ho\u1ea1t \u0111\u1ed9ng”. \u0110\u1ec3 gi\u1ea3i th\u00edch v\u1ec1 c\u00e1c m\u00f4 h\u00ecnh n\u00e0y, h\u00e3y xem c\u00e1c cu\u1ed9c th\u1ea3o lu\u1eadn t\u1ea1i gi\u1ea3 thuy\u1ebft th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng hi\u1ec7u qu\u1ea3, gi\u1ea3 thuy\u1ebft \u0111i b\u1ed9 ng\u1eabu nhi\u00ean, m\u00f4 h\u00ecnh \u0111\u1ecbnh gi\u00e1 t\u00e0i s\u1ea3n v\u1ed1n, m\u00f4 h\u00ecnh Fed, \u0111\u1ecbnh gi\u00e1 d\u1ef1a tr\u00ean th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng v\u00e0 t\u00e0i ch\u00ednh h\u00e0nh vi.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Ph\u00e2n t\u00edch c\u01a1 b\u1ea3n bao g\u1ed3m:<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n 1. Ph\u00e2n t\u00edch kinh t\u1ebf<\/p>\n\n\n\n 2. Ph\u00e2n t\u00edch ng\u00e0nh<\/p>\n\n\n\n 3. Ph\u00e2n t\u00edch c\u00f4ng ty<\/p>\n\n\n\n Gi\u00e1 tr\u1ecb n\u1ed9i t\u1ea1i c\u1ee7a c\u1ed5 phi\u1ebfu \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c x\u00e1c \u0111\u1ecbnh d\u1ef1a tr\u00ean ba ph\u00e2n t\u00edch n\u00e0y. Ch\u00ednh gi\u00e1 tr\u1ecb n\u00e0y \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c coi l\u00e0 gi\u00e1 tr\u1ecb th\u1ef1c c\u1ee7a c\u1ed5 phi\u1ebfu. N\u1ebfu gi\u00e1 tr\u1ecb n\u1ed9i t\u1ea1i cao h\u01a1n gi\u00e1 th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng, n\u00ean mua c\u1ed5 phi\u1ebfu. N\u1ebfu n\u00f3 b\u1eb1ng v\u1edbi gi\u00e1 th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng, n\u00ean n\u1eafm gi\u1eef c\u1ed5 ph\u1ea7n; V\u00e0 n\u1ebfu n\u00f3 th\u1ea5p h\u01a1n gi\u00e1 th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng, th\u00ec ng\u01b0\u1eddi ta n\u00ean b\u00e1n c\u1ed5 phi\u1ebfu.<\/p>\n\n\n\n S\u1eed d\u1ee5ng theo c\u00e1c ki\u1ec3u danh m\u1ee5c \u0111\u1ea7u t\u01b0 kh\u00e1c nhau<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n C\u00e1c nh\u00e0 \u0111\u1ea7u t\u01b0 c\u0169ng c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 s\u1eed d\u1ee5ng ph\u00e2n t\u00edch c\u01a1 b\u1ea3n trong c\u00e1c phong c\u00e1ch qu\u1ea3n l\u00fd danh m\u1ee5c \u0111\u1ea7u t\u01b0 kh\u00e1c nhau.<\/p>\n\n\n\n – C\u00e1c nh\u00e0 \u0111\u1ea7u t\u01b0 mua v\u00e0 n\u1eafm gi\u1eef tin r\u1eb1ng vi\u1ec7c b\u00e1m v\u00e0o c\u00e1c doanh nghi\u1ec7p t\u1ed1t cho ph\u00e9p t\u00e0i s\u1ea3n c\u1ee7a nh\u00e0 \u0111\u1ea7u t\u01b0 ph\u00e1t tri\u1ec3n c\u00f9ng v\u1edbi doanh nghi\u1ec7p. Ph\u00e2n t\u00edch c\u01a1 b\u1ea3n cho ph\u00e9p h\u1ecd t\u00ecm th\u1ea5y c\u00e1c c\u00f4ng ty “t\u1ed1t”, v\u00ec v\u1eady h\u1ecd gi\u1ea3m r\u1ee7i ro v\u00e0 x\u00e1c su\u1ea5t b\u1ecb x\u00f3a s\u1ed5.<\/p>\n\n\n\n – C\u00e1c nh\u00e0 \u0111\u1ea7u t\u01b0 gi\u00e1 tr\u1ecb h\u1ea1n ch\u1ebf s\u1ef1 ch\u00fa \u00fd c\u1ee7a h\u1ecd \u0111\u1ed1i v\u1edbi c\u00e1c c\u00f4ng ty b\u1ecb \u0111\u1ecbnh gi\u00e1 th\u1ea5p, tin r\u1eb1ng “th\u1eadt kh\u00f3 \u0111\u1ec3 r\u01a1i ra kh\u1ecfi m\u01b0\u01a1ng”. C\u00e1c gi\u00e1 tr\u1ecb m\u00e0 h\u1ecd tu\u00e2n theo \u0111\u1ebfn t\u1eeb ph\u00e2n t\u00edch c\u01a1 b\u1ea3n.<\/p>\n\n\n\n – C\u00e1c nh\u00e0 qu\u1ea3n l\u00fd c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 s\u1eed d\u1ee5ng ph\u00e2n t\u00edch c\u01a1 b\u1ea3n \u0111\u1ec3 \u0111\u00e1nh gi\u00e1 ch\u00ednh x\u00e1c c\u00e1c c\u00f4ng ty “t\u1ed1t” v\u00e0 “x\u1ea5u”.<\/p>\n\n\n\n – C\u00e1c nh\u00e0 qu\u1ea3n l\u00fd c\u0169ng c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 xem x\u00e9t chu k\u1ef3 kinh t\u1ebf trong vi\u1ec7c x\u00e1c \u0111\u1ecbnh xem c\u00e1c \u0111i\u1ec1u ki\u1ec7n c\u00f3 “\u0111\u00fang” \u0111\u1ec3 mua c\u00e1c c\u00f4ng ty ph\u00f9 h\u1ee3p c\u01a1 b\u1ea3n hay kh\u00f4ng.<\/p>\n\n\n\n – C\u00e1c nh\u00e0 \u0111\u1ea7u t\u01b0 tr\u00e1i ng\u01b0\u1ee3c cho r\u1eb1ng “trong ng\u1eafn h\u1ea1n, th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng l\u00e0 m\u1ed9t c\u1ed7 m\u00e1y b\u1ecf phi\u1ebfu, kh\u00f4ng ph\u1ea3i l\u00e0 m\u1ed9t m\u00e1y c\u00e2n”. [4] Ph\u00e2n t\u00edch c\u01a1 b\u1ea3n cho ph\u00e9p nh\u00e0 \u0111\u1ea7u t\u01b0 t\u1ef1 \u0111\u01b0a ra quy\u1ebft \u0111\u1ecbnh v\u1ec1 gi\u00e1 tr\u1ecb, trong khi b\u1ecf qua \u00fd ki\u1ebfn c\u1ee7a th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng.<\/p>\n\n\n\n – C\u00e1c nh\u00e0 qu\u1ea3n l\u00fd c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 s\u1eed d\u1ee5ng ph\u00e2n t\u00edch c\u01a1 b\u1ea3n \u0111\u1ec3 x\u00e1c \u0111\u1ecbnh t\u1ed1c \u0111\u1ed9 t\u0103ng tr\u01b0\u1edfng trong t\u01b0\u01a1ng lai \u0111\u1ec3 mua c\u1ed5 phi\u1ebfu t\u0103ng tr\u01b0\u1edfng gi\u00e1 cao.<\/p>\n\n\n\n – C\u00e1c nh\u00e0 qu\u1ea3n l\u00fd c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 bao g\u1ed3m c\u00e1c y\u1ebfu t\u1ed1 c\u01a1 b\u1ea3n c\u00f9ng v\u1edbi c\u00e1c y\u1ebfu t\u1ed1 k\u1ef9 thu\u1eadt trong c\u00e1c m\u00f4 h\u00ecnh m\u00e1y t\u00ednh (ph\u00e2n t\u00edch \u0111\u1ecbnh l\u01b0\u1ee3ng).<\/p>\n\n\n\n Ph\u01b0\u01a1ng ph\u00e1p ti\u1ebfp c\u1eadn t\u1eeb tr\u00ean xu\u1ed1ng v\u00e0 t\u1eeb d\u01b0\u1edbi l\u00ean<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n C\u00e1c nh\u00e0 \u0111\u1ea7u t\u01b0 s\u1eed d\u1ee5ng ph\u00e2n t\u00edch c\u01a1 b\u1ea3n c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 s\u1eed d\u1ee5ng ph\u01b0\u01a1ng ph\u00e1p ti\u1ebfp c\u1eadn t\u1eeb tr\u00ean xu\u1ed1ng ho\u1eb7c t\u1eeb d\u01b0\u1edbi l\u00ean.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Nh\u00e0 \u0111\u1ea7u t\u01b0 t\u1eeb tr\u00ean xu\u1ed1ng b\u1eaft \u0111\u1ea7u ph\u00e2n t\u00edch c\u1ee7a h\u1ecd v\u1edbi kinh t\u1ebf to\u00e0n c\u1ea7u, bao g\u1ed3m c\u1ea3 c\u00e1c ch\u1ec9 s\u1ed1 kinh t\u1ebf qu\u1ed1c t\u1ebf v\u00e0 qu\u1ed1c gia. Ch\u00fang c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 bao g\u1ed3m t\u1ed1c \u0111\u1ed9 t\u0103ng tr\u01b0\u1edfng GDP, l\u1ea1m ph\u00e1t, l\u00e3i su\u1ea5t, t\u1ef7 gi\u00e1 h\u1ed1i \u0111o\u00e1i, n\u0103ng su\u1ea5t v\u00e0 gi\u00e1 n\u0103ng l\u01b0\u1ee3ng. Sau \u0111\u00f3, h\u1ecd thu h\u1eb9p t\u00ecm ki\u1ebfm c\u1ee7a h\u1ecd \u0111\u1ec3 ph\u00e2n t\u00edch khu v\u1ef1c \/ ng\u00e0nh v\u1ec1 t\u1ed5ng doanh s\u1ed1, m\u1ee9c gi\u00e1, \u1ea3nh h\u01b0\u1edfng c\u1ee7a c\u00e1c s\u1ea3n ph\u1ea9m c\u1ea1nh tranh, c\u1ea1nh tranh n\u01b0\u1edbc ngo\u00e0i v\u00e0 gia nh\u1eadp ho\u1eb7c tho\u00e1t kh\u1ecfi ng\u00e0nh. Ch\u1ec9 sau \u0111\u00f3, h\u1ecd m\u1edbi tinh ch\u1ec9nh t\u00ecm ki\u1ebfm c\u1ee7a m\u00ecnh th\u00e0nh doanh nghi\u1ec7p t\u1ed1t nh\u1ea5t trong l\u0129nh v\u1ef1c \u0111ang \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c nghi\u00ean c\u1ee9u.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Nh\u00e0 \u0111\u1ea7u t\u01b0 t\u1eeb d\u01b0\u1edbi l\u00ean b\u1eaft \u0111\u1ea7u v\u1edbi c\u00e1c doanh nghi\u1ec7p c\u1ee5 th\u1ec3, b\u1ea5t k\u1ec3 ng\u00e0nh \/ khu v\u1ef1c c\u1ee7a h\u1ecd v\u00e0 ti\u1ebfn h\u00e0nh ng\u01b0\u1ee3c l\u1ea1i v\u1edbi c\u00e1ch ti\u1ebfp c\u1eadn t\u1eeb tr\u00ean xu\u1ed1ng.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Quy tr\u00ecnh th\u1ef1c hi\u1ec7n<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n Vi\u1ec7c ph\u00e2n t\u00edch s\u1ee9c kh\u1ecfe c\u1ee7a m\u1ed9t doanh nghi\u1ec7p b\u1eaft \u0111\u1ea7u b\u1eb1ng ph\u00e2n t\u00edch b\u00e1o c\u00e1o t\u00e0i ch\u00ednh bao g\u1ed3m c\u00e1c t\u1ef7 l\u1ec7 t\u00e0i ch\u00ednh. N\u00f3 xem x\u00e9t c\u1ed5 t\u1ee9c \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c tr\u1ea3, d\u00f2ng ti\u1ec1n ho\u1ea1t \u0111\u1ed9ng, c\u00e1c v\u1ea5n \u0111\u1ec1 v\u1ed1n ch\u1ee7 s\u1edf h\u1eefu m\u1edbi v\u00e0 t\u00e0i tr\u1ee3 v\u1ed1n. C\u00e1c \u01b0\u1edbc t\u00ednh thu nh\u1eadp v\u00e0 d\u1ef1 b\u00e1o t\u1ed1c \u0111\u1ed9 t\u0103ng tr\u01b0\u1edfng \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c c\u00f4ng b\u1ed1 r\u1ed9ng r\u00e3i b\u1edfi Thomson Reuters v\u00e0 nh\u1eefng ng\u01b0\u1eddi kh\u00e1c c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c coi l\u00e0 “c\u01a1 b\u1ea3n” (ch\u00fang l\u00e0 s\u1ef1 th\u1eadt) ho\u1eb7c “k\u1ef9 thu\u1eadt” (ch\u00fang l\u00e0 t\u00e2m l\u00fd nh\u00e0 \u0111\u1ea7u t\u01b0) d\u1ef1a tr\u00ean nh\u1eadn th\u1ee9c v\u1ec1 t\u00ednh h\u1ee3p l\u1ec7 c\u1ee7a ch\u00fang.<\/p>\n\n\n\n T\u1ed1c \u0111\u1ed9 t\u0103ng tr\u01b0\u1edfng x\u00e1c \u0111\u1ecbnh (thu nh\u1eadp v\u00e0 ti\u1ec1n m\u1eb7t) v\u00e0 m\u1ee9c \u0111\u1ed9 r\u1ee7i ro (\u0111\u1ec3 x\u00e1c \u0111\u1ecbnh t\u1ef7 l\u1ec7 chi\u1ebft kh\u1ea5u) \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c s\u1eed d\u1ee5ng trong c\u00e1c m\u00f4 h\u00ecnh \u0111\u1ecbnh gi\u00e1 kh\u00e1c nhau. Quan tr\u1ecdng nh\u1ea5t l\u00e0 m\u00f4 h\u00ecnh d\u00f2ng ti\u1ec1n chi\u1ebft kh\u1ea5u, t\u00ednh to\u00e1n gi\u00e1 tr\u1ecb hi\u1ec7n t\u1ea1i c\u1ee7a t\u01b0\u01a1ng lai:<\/p>\n\n\n\n – C\u1ed5 t\u1ee9c m\u00e0 nh\u00e0 \u0111\u1ea7u t\u01b0 nh\u1eadn \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c, c\u00f9ng v\u1edbi gi\u00e1 b\u00e1n cu\u1ed1i c\u00f9ng; (M\u00f4 h\u00ecnh Gordon)<\/p>\n\n\n\n – Thu nh\u1eadp c\u1ee7a c\u00f4ng ty;<\/p>\n\n\n\n – D\u00f2ng ti\u1ec1n c\u1ee7a c\u00f4ng ty.<\/p>\n\n\n\n M\u00f4 h\u00ecnh \u0111\u01a1n gi\u1ea3n th\u01b0\u1eddng \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c s\u1eed d\u1ee5ng l\u00e0 t\u1ef7 l\u1ec7 P\/E (t\u1ef7 l\u1ec7 gi\u00e1 tr\u00ean thu nh\u1eadp). Ti\u1ec1m \u1ea9n trong m\u00f4 h\u00ecnh ni\u00ean kim v\u0129nh vi\u1ec5n (gi\u00e1 tr\u1ecb th\u1eddi gian c\u1ee7a ti\u1ec1n) n\u00e0y l\u00e0 t\u1ef7 l\u1ec7 ngh\u1ecbch \u0111\u1ea3o, ho\u1eb7c t\u1ef7 l\u1ec7 E\/P, l\u00e0 t\u1ef7 l\u1ec7 chi\u1ebft kh\u1ea5u ph\u00f9 h\u1ee3p v\u1edbi r\u1ee7i ro c\u1ee7a doanh nghi\u1ec7p. Vi\u1ec7c s\u1eed d\u1ee5ng t\u1ef7 l\u1ec7 P\/E c\u00f3 nh\u01b0\u1ee3c \u0111i\u1ec3m l\u00e0 n\u00f3 b\u1ecf qua t\u0103ng tr\u01b0\u1edfng thu nh\u1eadp trong t\u01b0\u01a1ng lai.<\/p>\n\n\n\n B\u1edfi v\u00ec s\u1ef1 t\u0103ng tr\u01b0\u1edfng trong t\u01b0\u01a1ng lai c\u1ee7a d\u00f2ng ti\u1ec1n t\u1ef1 do v\u00e0 thu nh\u1eadp c\u1ee7a m\u1ed9t c\u00f4ng ty th\u00fac \u0111\u1ea9y gi\u00e1 tr\u1ecb h\u1ee3p l\u00fd c\u1ee7a c\u00f4ng ty, t\u1ef7 l\u1ec7 PEG c\u00f3 \u00fd ngh\u0129a h\u01a1n t\u1ef7 l\u1ec7 P\/E. T\u1ef7 l\u1ec7 PEG k\u1ebft h\u1ee3p c\u00e1c \u01b0\u1edbc t\u00ednh t\u0103ng tr\u01b0\u1edfng cho thu nh\u1eadp trong t\u01b0\u01a1ng lai, v\u00ed d\u1ee5: EBIT. Hi\u1ec7u l\u1ef1c c\u1ee7a n\u00f3 ph\u1ee5 thu\u1ed9c v\u00e0o kho\u1ea3ng th\u1eddi gian c\u00e1c nh\u00e0 ph\u00e2n t\u00edch tin r\u1eb1ng s\u1ef1 t\u0103ng tr\u01b0\u1edfng s\u1ebd ti\u1ebfp t\u1ee5c v\u00e0 v\u00e0o t\u00ednh h\u1ee3p l\u00fd c\u1ee7a c\u00e1c \u01b0\u1edbc t\u00ednh trong t\u01b0\u01a1ng lai so v\u1edbi t\u0103ng tr\u01b0\u1edfng thu nh\u1eadp trong nh\u1eefng n\u0103m qua (th\u01b0\u1eddng l\u00e0 b\u1ea3y n\u0103m qua). C\u00e1c m\u00f4 h\u00ecnh IGAR c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c s\u1eed d\u1ee5ng \u0111\u1ec3 quy k\u1ebft nh\u1eefng thay \u0111\u1ed5i d\u1ef1 ki\u1ebfn v\u1ec1 t\u0103ng tr\u01b0\u1edfng t\u1eeb P\/E hi\u1ec7n t\u1ea1i v\u00e0 t\u1ed1c \u0111\u1ed9 t\u0103ng tr\u01b0\u1edfng l\u1ecbch s\u1eed cho c\u00e1c c\u1ed5 phi\u1ebfu so v\u1edbi ch\u1ec9 s\u1ed1 so s\u00e1nh.<\/p>\n\n\n\n S\u1ed1 n\u1ee3 m\u00e0 m\u1ed9t c\u00f4ng ty s\u1edf h\u1eefu c\u0169ng l\u00e0 m\u1ed9t c\u00e2n nh\u1eafc ch\u00ednh trong vi\u1ec7c x\u00e1c \u0111\u1ecbnh \u0111\u00f2n b\u1ea9y t\u00e0i ch\u00ednh v\u00e0 s\u1ee9c kh\u1ecfe c\u1ee7a n\u00f3. \u0110i\u1ec1u n\u00e0y c\u00f3 \u00fd ngh\u0129a b\u1edfi v\u00ec m\u1ed9t c\u00f4ng ty c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 \u0111\u1ea1t \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c thu nh\u1eadp cao h\u01a1n (v\u00e0 theo c\u00e1ch n\u00e0y l\u00e0 l\u1ee3i nhu\u1eadn tr\u00ean v\u1ed1n ch\u1ee7 s\u1edf h\u1eefu cao h\u01a1n v\u00e0 t\u1ef7 l\u1ec7 P \/ E cao h\u01a1n) ch\u1ec9 b\u1eb1ng c\u00e1ch t\u0103ng s\u1ed1 n\u1ee3 r\u00f2ng. \u0110i\u1ec1u n\u00e0y c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c \u0111\u00e1nh gi\u00e1 nhanh ch\u00f3ng b\u1eb1ng c\u00e1ch s\u1eed d\u1ee5ng t\u1ef7 l\u1ec7 n\u1ee3 tr\u00ean v\u1ed1n ch\u1ee7 s\u1edf h\u1eefu, t\u1ef7 l\u1ec7 hi\u1ec7n t\u1ea1i (t\u00e0i s\u1ea3n ng\u1eafn h\u1ea1n \/ n\u1ee3 ng\u1eafn h\u1ea1n) v\u00e0 l\u1ee3i nhu\u1eadn tr\u00ean v\u1ed1n s\u1eed d\u1ee5ng (ROCE). ROCE l\u00e0 t\u1ef7 l\u1ec7 EBIT chia cho “v\u1ed1n s\u1eed d\u1ee5ng”, t\u1ee9c l\u00e0 t\u1ea5t c\u1ea3 c\u00e1c t\u00e0i s\u1ea3n hi\u1ec7n t\u1ea1i v\u00e0 phi hi\u1ec7n t\u1ea1i tr\u1eeb \u0111i c\u00e1c kho\u1ea3n n\u1ee3 ho\u1ea1t \u0111\u1ed9ng, l\u00e0 v\u1ed1n th\u1ef1c c\u1ee7a c\u00f4ng ty b\u1ea5t k\u1ec3 n\u00f3 \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c t\u00e0i tr\u1ee3 b\u1eb1ng v\u1ed1n ch\u1ee7 s\u1edf h\u1eefu hay n\u1ee3.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Ph\u1ea3n bi\u1ec7n<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n L\u01b0u \u00fd r\u1eb1ng c\u00e1c nh\u00e0 kinh t\u1ebf nh\u01b0 Burton Malkiel cho r\u1eb1ng c\u1ea3 ph\u00e2n t\u00edch c\u01a1 b\u1ea3n v\u00e0 ph\u00e2n t\u00edch k\u1ef9 thu\u1eadt \u0111\u1ec1u kh\u00f4ng h\u1eefu \u00edch trong vi\u1ec7c v\u01b0\u1ee3t tr\u1ed9i so v\u1edbi th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" Ph\u00e2n t\u00edch \u0111\u1ea7u t\u01b0 c\u01a1 b\u1ea3n, trong k\u1ebf to\u00e1n v\u00e0 t\u00e0i ch\u00ednh, l\u00e0 ph\u00e2n t\u00edch b\u00e1o c\u00e1o t\u00e0i ch\u00ednh c\u1ee7a doanh nghi\u1ec7p (th\u01b0\u1eddng \u0111\u1ec3 ph\u00e2n t\u00edch t\u00e0i s\u1ea3n, n\u1ee3 ph\u1ea3i tr\u1ea3 v\u00e0 thu nh\u1eadp c\u1ee7a doanh nghi\u1ec7p); S\u1ee9c kh\u1ecfe doanh nghi\u1ec7p; \u0110\u1ed1i th\u1ee7 c\u1ea1nh tranh v\u00e0 th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng. N\u00f3 c\u0169ng xem x\u00e9t t\u00ecnh tr\u1ea1ng chung […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","template":"","meta":{"footnotes":""},"doc_category":[5],"doc_tag":[],"class_list":["post-38","docs","type-docs","status-publish","hentry","doc_category-dau-tu"],"year_month":"2026-04","word_count":2669,"total_views":0,"reactions":{"happy":0,"normal":0,"sad":0},"author_info":{"author_nicename":"admin","author_url":"https:\/\/a.funds.io.vn\/?author=1"},"doc_category_info":[{"term_name":"\u0110\u1ea7u t\u01b0","term_url":"https:\/\/a.funds.io.vn\/?doc_category=dau-tu"}],"doc_tag_info":[],"author_list":[{"ID":"1","user_login":"admin","display_name":"admin","id":"1"}],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/a.funds.io.vn\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/docs\/38","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/a.funds.io.vn\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/docs"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/a.funds.io.vn\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/docs"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/a.funds.io.vn\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/a.funds.io.vn\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=38"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/a.funds.io.vn\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/docs\/38\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":39,"href":"https:\/\/a.funds.io.vn\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/docs\/38\/revisions\/39"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/a.funds.io.vn\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=38"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"doc_category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/a.funds.io.vn\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fdoc_category&post=38"},{"taxonomy":"doc_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/a.funds.io.vn\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fdoc_tag&post=38"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}