\u0110\u1ecbnh gi\u00e1 quy\u1ec1n ch\u1ecdn th\u1ef1c, c\u00f2n th\u01b0\u1eddng \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c g\u1ecdi l\u00e0 ph\u00e2n t\u00edch quy\u1ec1n ch\u1ecdn th\u1ef1c, (ROV ho\u1eb7c ROA) \u00e1p d\u1ee5ng c\u00e1c k\u1ef9 thu\u1eadt \u0111\u1ecbnh gi\u00e1 quy\u1ec1n ch\u1ecdn cho c\u00e1c quy\u1ebft \u0111\u1ecbnh ng\u00e2n s\u00e1ch v\u1ed1n. B\u1ea3n th\u00e2n m\u1ed9t l\u1ef1a ch\u1ecdn th\u1ef1c s\u1ef1 l\u00e0 quy\u1ec1n – nh\u01b0ng kh\u00f4ng ph\u1ea3i l\u00e0 ngh\u0129a v\u1ee5 – th\u1ef1c hi\u1ec7n m\u1ed9t s\u1ed1 s\u00e1ng ki\u1ebfn kinh doanh nh\u1ea5t \u0111\u1ecbnh, ch\u1eb3ng h\u1ea1n nh\u01b0 tr\u00ec ho\u00e3n, t\u1eeb b\u1ecf, m\u1edf r\u1ed9ng, d\u00e0n d\u1ef1ng ho\u1eb7c k\u00fd h\u1ee3p \u0111\u1ed3ng v\u1edbi m\u1ed9t d\u1ef1 \u00e1n \u0111\u1ea7u t\u01b0 v\u1ed1n. V\u00ed d\u1ee5, \u0111\u1ecbnh gi\u00e1 quy\u1ec1n ch\u1ecdn th\u1ef1c c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 ki\u1ec3m tra c\u01a1 h\u1ed9i \u0111\u1ea7u t\u01b0 v\u00e0o vi\u1ec7c m\u1edf r\u1ed9ng nh\u00e0 m\u00e1y c\u1ee7a c\u00f4ng ty v\u00e0 l\u1ef1a ch\u1ecdn thay th\u1ebf \u0111\u1ec3 b\u00e1n nh\u00e0 m\u00e1y.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Ph\u1ea1m vi<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n Quy\u1ec1n ch\u1ecdn th\u1ef1c th\u01b0\u1eddng \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c ph\u00e2n bi\u1ec7t v\u1edbi c\u00e1c t\u00f9y ch\u1ecdn t\u00e0i ch\u00ednh th\u00f4ng th\u01b0\u1eddng \u1edf ch\u1ed7 ch\u00fang th\u01b0\u1eddng kh\u00f4ng \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c giao d\u1ecbch d\u01b0\u1edbi d\u1ea1ng ch\u1ee9ng kho\u00e1n v\u00e0 th\u01b0\u1eddng kh\u00f4ng li\u00ean quan \u0111\u1ebfn c\u00e1c quy\u1ebft \u0111\u1ecbnh v\u1ec1 t\u00e0i s\u1ea3n c\u01a1 b\u1ea3n \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c giao d\u1ecbch d\u01b0\u1edbi d\u1ea1ng ch\u1ee9ng kho\u00e1n t\u00e0i ch\u00ednh. M\u1ed9t \u0111i\u1ec3m kh\u00e1c bi\u1ec7t n\u1eefa l\u00e0 nh\u1eefng ng\u01b0\u1eddi n\u1eafm gi\u1eef quy\u1ec1n ch\u1ecdn \u1edf \u0111\u00e2y, t\u1ee9c l\u00e0 qu\u1ea3n l\u00fd, c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 \u1ea3nh h\u01b0\u1edfng tr\u1ef1c ti\u1ebfp \u0111\u1ebfn gi\u00e1 tr\u1ecb c\u1ee7a d\u1ef1 \u00e1n c\u01a1 b\u1ea3n c\u1ee7a quy\u1ec1n ch\u1ecdn; trong khi \u0111\u00e2y kh\u00f4ng ph\u1ea3i l\u00e0 m\u1ed9t s\u1ef1 c\u00e2n nh\u1eafc li\u00ean quan \u0111\u1ebfn b\u1ea3o m\u1eadt c\u01a1 b\u1ea3n c\u1ee7a m\u1ed9t l\u1ef1a ch\u1ecdn t\u00e0i ch\u00ednh. H\u01a1n n\u1eefa, qu\u1ea3n l\u00fd kh\u00f4ng th\u1ec3 \u0111o l\u01b0\u1eddng s\u1ef1 kh\u00f4ng ch\u1eafc ch\u1eafn v\u1ec1 m\u1eb7t bi\u1ebfn \u0111\u1ed9ng, v\u00e0 thay v\u00e0o \u0111\u00f3 ph\u1ea3i d\u1ef1a v\u00e0o nh\u1eadn th\u1ee9c c\u1ee7a h\u1ecd v\u1ec1 s\u1ef1 kh\u00f4ng ch\u1eafc ch\u1eafn. Kh\u00f4ng gi\u1ed1ng nh\u01b0 c\u00e1c l\u1ef1a ch\u1ecdn t\u00e0i ch\u00ednh, qu\u1ea3n l\u00fd c\u0169ng ph\u1ea3i t\u1ea1o ra ho\u1eb7c kh\u00e1m ph\u00e1 c\u00e1c l\u1ef1a ch\u1ecdn th\u1ef1c s\u1ef1, v\u00e0 qu\u00e1 tr\u00ecnh s\u00e1ng t\u1ea1o v\u00e0 kh\u00e1m ph\u00e1 nh\u01b0 v\u1eady bao g\u1ed3m m\u1ed9t nhi\u1ec7m v\u1ee5 kinh doanh ho\u1eb7c kinh doanh. Quy\u1ec1n ch\u1ecdn th\u1ef1c c\u00f3 gi\u00e1 tr\u1ecb nh\u1ea5t khi s\u1ef1 kh\u00f4ng ch\u1eafc ch\u1eafn cao; Qu\u1ea3n l\u00fd c\u00f3 s\u1ef1 linh ho\u1ea1t \u0111\u00e1ng k\u1ec3 \u0111\u1ec3 thay \u0111\u1ed5i ti\u1ebfn tr\u00ecnh c\u1ee7a d\u1ef1 \u00e1n theo h\u01b0\u1edbng thu\u1eadn l\u1ee3i v\u00e0 s\u1eb5n s\u00e0ng th\u1ef1c hi\u1ec7n c\u00e1c l\u1ef1a ch\u1ecdn.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Ph\u00e2n t\u00edch quy\u1ec1n ch\u1ecdn th\u1ef1c, nh\u01b0 m\u1ed9t m\u00f4n h\u1ecdc, m\u1edf r\u1ed9ng t\u1eeb \u1ee9ng d\u1ee5ng c\u1ee7a n\u00f3 trong t\u00e0i ch\u00ednh doanh nghi\u1ec7p, \u0111\u1ebfn vi\u1ec7c ra quy\u1ebft \u0111\u1ecbnh trong \u0111i\u1ec1u ki\u1ec7n kh\u00f4ng ch\u1eafc ch\u1eafn n\u00f3i chung, \u0111i\u1ec1u ch\u1ec9nh c\u00e1c k\u1ef9 thu\u1eadt \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c ph\u00e1t tri\u1ec3n cho c\u00e1c l\u1ef1a ch\u1ecdn t\u00e0i ch\u00ednh v\u1edbi c\u00e1c quy\u1ebft \u0111\u1ecbnh “th\u1ef1c t\u1ebf”. V\u00ed d\u1ee5, c\u00e1c nh\u00e0 qu\u1ea3n l\u00fd R &D c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 s\u1eed d\u1ee5ng \u0110\u1ecbnh gi\u00e1 Quy\u1ec1n ch\u1ecdn Th\u1ef1c \u0111\u1ec3 gi\u00fap h\u1ecd \u0111\u1ed1i ph\u00f3 v\u1edbi nh\u1eefng b\u1ea5t \u1ed5n kh\u00e1c nhau trong vi\u1ec7c \u0111\u01b0a ra quy\u1ebft \u0111\u1ecbnh v\u1ec1 vi\u1ec7c ph\u00e2n b\u1ed5 ngu\u1ed3n l\u1ef1c gi\u1eefa c\u00e1c d\u1ef1 \u00e1n R &D. V\u00ed d\u1ee5 phi kinh doanh c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 l\u00e0 \u0111\u00e1nh gi\u00e1 chi ph\u00ed c\u1ee7a m\u00e1y khai th\u00e1c ti\u1ec1n \u0111i\u1ec7n t\u1eed, ho\u1eb7c quy\u1ebft \u0111\u1ecbnh tham gia l\u1ef1c l\u01b0\u1ee3ng lao \u0111\u1ed9ng, hay \u0111\u00fang h\u01a1n l\u00e0 t\u1eeb b\u1ecf v\u00e0i n\u0103m thu nh\u1eadp \u0111\u1ec3 theo h\u1ecdc cao h\u1ecdc. Do \u0111\u00f3, n\u00f3 bu\u1ed9c nh\u1eefng ng\u01b0\u1eddi ra quy\u1ebft \u0111\u1ecbnh ph\u1ea3i r\u00f5 r\u00e0ng v\u1ec1 c\u00e1c gi\u1ea3 \u0111\u1ecbnh l\u00e0m c\u01a1 s\u1edf cho d\u1ef1 \u0111o\u00e1n c\u1ee7a h\u1ecd v\u00e0 v\u00ec l\u00fd do n\u00e0y, ROV ng\u00e0y c\u00e0ng \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c s\u1eed d\u1ee5ng nh\u01b0 m\u1ed9t c\u00f4ng c\u1ee5 trong vi\u1ec7c x\u00e2y d\u1ef1ng chi\u1ebfn l\u01b0\u1ee3c kinh doanh. Vi\u1ec7c m\u1edf r\u1ed9ng c\u00e1c t\u00f9y ch\u1ecdn th\u1ef1c cho c\u00e1c d\u1ef1 \u00e1n trong th\u1ebf gi\u1edbi th\u1ef1c n\u00e0y th\u01b0\u1eddng y\u00eau c\u1ea7u c\u00e1c h\u1ec7 th\u1ed1ng h\u1ed7 tr\u1ee3 quy\u1ebft \u0111\u1ecbnh t\u00f9y ch\u1ec9nh, b\u1edfi v\u00ec n\u1ebfu kh\u00f4ng, c\u00e1c t\u00f9y ch\u1ecdn th\u1ef1c ph\u1ee9c t\u1ea1p ph\u1ee9c t\u1ea1p s\u1ebd tr\u1edf n\u00ean qu\u00e1 kh\u00f3 x\u1eed l\u00fd.<\/p>\n\n\n\n C\u00e1c lo\u1ea1i t\u00f9y ch\u1ecdn th\u1ef1c<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n T\u00ednh linh ho\u1ea1t c\u00f3 s\u1eb5n cho qu\u1ea3n l\u00fd – t\u1ee9c l\u00e0 “c\u00e1c t\u00f9y ch\u1ecdn th\u1ef1c t\u1ebf” th\u1ef1c t\u1ebf – n\u00f3i chung, s\u1ebd li\u00ean quan \u0111\u1ebfn quy m\u00f4 d\u1ef1 \u00e1n, th\u1eddi gian d\u1ef1 \u00e1n v\u00e0 ho\u1ea1t \u0111\u1ed9ng c\u1ee7a d\u1ef1 \u00e1n sau khi \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c thi\u1ebft l\u1eadp. Trong m\u1ecdi tr\u01b0\u1eddng h\u1ee3p, b\u1ea5t k\u1ef3 chi ph\u00ed tr\u1ea3 tr\u01b0\u1edbc n\u00e0o (kh\u00f4ng th\u1ec3 thu h\u1ed3i) li\u00ean quan \u0111\u1ebfn t\u00ednh linh ho\u1ea1t n\u00e0y \u0111\u1ec1u l\u00e0 ph\u00ed b\u1ea3o hi\u1ec3m quy\u1ec1n ch\u1ecdn. Quy\u1ec1n ch\u1ecdn th\u1ef1c c\u0169ng th\u01b0\u1eddng \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c \u00e1p d\u1ee5ng \u0111\u1ec3 \u0111\u1ecbnh gi\u00e1 c\u1ed5 phi\u1ebfu.<\/p>\n\n\n\n C\u00e1c t\u00f9y ch\u1ecdn li\u00ean quan \u0111\u1ebfn quy m\u00f4 d\u1ef1 \u00e1n<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n Khi ph\u1ea1m vi c\u1ee7a d\u1ef1 \u00e1n kh\u00f4ng ch\u1eafc ch\u1eafn, t\u00ednh linh ho\u1ea1t v\u1ec1 quy m\u00f4 c\u1ee7a c\u00e1c c\u01a1 s\u1edf li\u00ean quan l\u00e0 c\u00f3 gi\u00e1 tr\u1ecb v\u00e0 t\u1ea1o th\u00e0nh t\u00f9y ch\u1ecdn.<\/p>\n\n\n\n – Ph\u01b0\u01a1ng \u00e1n m\u1edf r\u1ed9ng:<\/em><\/strong> T\u1ea1i \u0111\u00e2y d\u1ef1 \u00e1n \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c x\u00e2y d\u1ef1ng v\u1edbi c\u00f4ng su\u1ea5t v\u01b0\u1ee3t qu\u00e1 m\u1ee9c s\u1ea3n l\u01b0\u1ee3ng d\u1ef1 ki\u1ebfn \u0111\u1ec3 c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 s\u1ea3n xu\u1ea5t v\u1edbi t\u1ed1c \u0111\u1ed9 cao h\u01a1n n\u1ebfu c\u1ea7n. Qu\u1ea3n l\u00fd sau \u0111\u00f3 c\u00f3 t\u00f9y ch\u1ecdn (nh\u01b0ng kh\u00f4ng ph\u1ea3i ngh\u0129a v\u1ee5) \u0111\u1ec3 m\u1edf r\u1ed9ng – t\u1ee9c l\u00e0 th\u1ef1c hi\u1ec7n quy\u1ec1n ch\u1ecdn – n\u1ebfu c\u00e1c \u0111i\u1ec1u ki\u1ec7n tr\u1edf n\u00ean thu\u1eadn l\u1ee3i. M\u1ed9t d\u1ef1 \u00e1n v\u1edbi t\u00f9y ch\u1ecdn m\u1edf r\u1ed9ng s\u1ebd t\u1ed1n nhi\u1ec1u chi ph\u00ed h\u01a1n \u0111\u1ec3 thi\u1ebft l\u1eadp, ph\u1ea7n v\u01b0\u1ee3t qu\u00e1 l\u00e0 ph\u00ed quy\u1ec1n ch\u1ecdn, nh\u01b0ng c\u00f3 gi\u00e1 tr\u1ecb h\u01a1n c\u00f9ng nhau m\u00e0 kh\u00f4ng c\u00f3 kh\u1ea3 n\u0103ng m\u1edf r\u1ed9ng. \u0110i\u1ec1u n\u00e0y t\u01b0\u01a1ng \u0111\u01b0\u01a1ng v\u1edbi m\u1ed9t t\u00f9y ch\u1ecdn cu\u1ed9c g\u1ecdi.<\/p>\n\n\n\n – L\u1ef1a ch\u1ecdn h\u1ee3p \u0111\u1ed3ng:<\/em><\/strong> D\u1ef1 \u00e1n \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c thi\u1ebft k\u1ebf sao cho s\u1ea3n l\u01b0\u1ee3ng c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c k\u00fd h\u1ee3p \u0111\u1ed3ng trong t\u01b0\u01a1ng lai n\u1ebfu \u0111i\u1ec1u ki\u1ec7n tr\u1edf n\u00ean kh\u00f4ng thu\u1eadn l\u1ee3i. T\u1eeb b\u1ecf c\u00e1c kho\u1ea3n chi ti\u00eau trong t\u01b0\u01a1ng lai n\u00e0y t\u1ea1o th\u00e0nh b\u00e0i t\u1eadp quy\u1ec1n ch\u1ecdn. \u0110i\u1ec1u n\u00e0y t\u01b0\u01a1ng \u0111\u01b0\u01a1ng v\u1edbi quy\u1ec1n ch\u1ecdn b\u00e1n v\u00e0 m\u1ed9t l\u1ea7n n\u1eefa, chi ph\u00ed tr\u1ea3 tr\u01b0\u1edbc v\u01b0\u1ee3t qu\u00e1 l\u00e0 ph\u00ed quy\u1ec1n ch\u1ecdn.<\/p>\n\n\n\n – T\u00f9y ch\u1ecdn m\u1edf r\u1ed9ng ho\u1eb7c k\u00fd h\u1ee3p \u0111\u1ed3ng:<\/em><\/strong> \u1ede \u0111\u00e2y d\u1ef1 \u00e1n \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c thi\u1ebft k\u1ebf sao cho ho\u1ea1t \u0111\u1ed9ng c\u1ee7a n\u00f3 c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c b\u1eadt v\u00e0 t\u1eaft \u0111\u1ed9ng. Ban qu\u1ea3n l\u00fd c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 t\u1eaft m\u1ed9t ph\u1ea7n ho\u1eb7c to\u00e0n b\u1ed9 ho\u1ea1t \u0111\u1ed9ng khi \u0111i\u1ec1u ki\u1ec7n kh\u00f4ng thu\u1eadn l\u1ee3i (t\u00f9y ch\u1ecdn b\u00e1n) v\u00e0 c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 kh\u1edfi \u0111\u1ed9ng l\u1ea1i ho\u1ea1t \u0111\u1ed9ng khi \u0111i\u1ec1u ki\u1ec7n \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c c\u1ea3i thi\u1ec7n (t\u00f9y ch\u1ecdn cu\u1ed9c g\u1ecdi). M\u1ed9t h\u1ec7 th\u1ed1ng s\u1ea3n xu\u1ea5t linh ho\u1ea1t (FMS) l\u00e0 m\u1ed9t v\u00ed d\u1ee5 \u0111i\u1ec3n h\u00ecnh c\u1ee7a lo\u1ea1i t\u00f9y ch\u1ecdn n\u00e0y. T\u00f9y ch\u1ecdn n\u00e0y c\u00f2n \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c g\u1ecdi l\u00e0 t\u00f9y ch\u1ecdn Chuy\u1ec3n \u0111\u1ed5i.<\/p>\n\n\n\n C\u00e1c t\u00f9y ch\u1ecdn li\u00ean quan \u0111\u1ebfn tu\u1ed5i th\u1ecd v\u00e0 th\u1eddi gian d\u1ef1 \u00e1n<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n Khi c\u00f3 s\u1ef1 kh\u00f4ng ch\u1eafc ch\u1eafn v\u1ec1 th\u1eddi \u0111i\u1ec3m v\u00e0 c\u00e1ch th\u1ee9c, kinh doanh ho\u1eb7c c\u00e1c \u0111i\u1ec1u ki\u1ec7n kh\u00e1c s\u1ebd x\u1ea3y ra, t\u00ednh linh ho\u1ea1t v\u1ec1 th\u1eddi gian c\u1ee7a (c\u00e1c) d\u1ef1 \u00e1n c\u00f3 li\u00ean quan l\u00e0 c\u00f3 gi\u00e1 tr\u1ecb v\u00e0 t\u1ea1o th\u00e0nh t\u00f9y ch\u1ecdn.<\/p>\n\n\n\n – T\u00f9y ch\u1ecdn t\u0103ng tr\u01b0\u1edfng:<\/em><\/strong> c\u00f3 l\u1ebd l\u00e0 chung nh\u1ea5t trong danh m\u1ee5c n\u00e0y – nh\u1eefng t\u00f9y ch\u1ecdn n\u00e0y \u0111\u00f2i h\u1ecfi t\u00f9y ch\u1ecdn cu\u1ed9c g\u1ecdi ch\u1ec9 th\u1ef1c hi\u1ec7n nh\u1eefng d\u1ef1 \u00e1n c\u00f3 v\u1ebb c\u00f3 l\u1ee3i nhu\u1eadn t\u1ea1i th\u1eddi \u0111i\u1ec3m b\u1eaft \u0111\u1ea7u.<\/p>\n\n\n\n – T\u00f9y ch\u1ecdn b\u1eaft \u0111\u1ea7u ho\u1eb7c tr\u00ec ho\u00e3n:<\/em><\/strong> \u1ede \u0111\u00e2y qu\u1ea3n l\u00fd c\u00f3 s\u1ef1 linh ho\u1ea1t v\u1ec1 th\u1eddi \u0111i\u1ec3m b\u1eaft \u0111\u1ea7u m\u1ed9t d\u1ef1 \u00e1n. V\u00ed d\u1ee5, trong th\u0103m d\u00f2 t\u00e0i nguy\u00ean thi\u00ean nhi\u00ean, m\u1ed9t c\u00f4ng ty c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 tr\u00ec ho\u00e3n vi\u1ec7c khai th\u00e1c ti\u1ec1n g\u1eedi cho \u0111\u1ebfn khi \u0111i\u1ec1u ki\u1ec7n th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng thu\u1eadn l\u1ee3i. \u0110i\u1ec1u n\u00e0y t\u1ea1o th\u00e0nh m\u1ed9t t\u00f9y ch\u1ecdn cu\u1ed9c g\u1ecdi ki\u1ec3u M\u1ef9.<\/p>\n\n\n\n – T\u00f9y ch\u1ecdn tr\u00ec ho\u00e3n v\u1edbi b\u1eb1ng s\u00e1ng ch\u1ebf s\u1ea3n ph\u1ea9m:<\/em><\/strong> M\u1ed9t c\u00f4ng ty c\u00f3 quy\u1ec1n c\u1ea5p b\u1eb1ng s\u00e1ng ch\u1ebf v\u1ec1 s\u1ea3n ph\u1ea9m c\u00f3 quy\u1ec1n ph\u00e1t tri\u1ec3n v\u00e0 ti\u1ebfp th\u1ecb s\u1ea3n ph\u1ea9m \u0111\u1ed9c quy\u1ec1n cho \u0111\u1ebfn khi h\u1ebft h\u1ea1n b\u1eb1ng s\u00e1ng ch\u1ebf. C\u00f4ng ty s\u1ebd ti\u1ebfp th\u1ecb v\u00e0 ph\u00e1t tri\u1ec3n s\u1ea3n ph\u1ea9m ch\u1ec9 khi gi\u00e1 tr\u1ecb hi\u1ec7n t\u1ea1i c\u1ee7a d\u00f2ng ti\u1ec1n d\u1ef1 ki\u1ebfn t\u1eeb vi\u1ec7c b\u00e1n s\u1ea3n ph\u1ea9m v\u01b0\u1ee3t qu\u00e1 chi ph\u00ed ph\u00e1t tri\u1ec3n. N\u1ebfu \u0111i\u1ec1u n\u00e0y kh\u00f4ng x\u1ea3y ra, c\u00f4ng ty c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 g\u00e1c l\u1ea1i b\u1eb1ng s\u00e1ng ch\u1ebf v\u00e0 kh\u00f4ng ph\u1ea3i ch\u1ecbu th\u00eam b\u1ea5t k\u1ef3 chi ph\u00ed n\u00e0o.<\/p>\n\n\n\n – L\u1ef1a ch\u1ecdn t\u1eeb b\u1ecf:<\/em><\/strong> Ban qu\u1ea3n l\u00fd c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 c\u00f3 t\u00f9y ch\u1ecdn ng\u1eebng m\u1ed9t d\u1ef1 \u00e1n trong su\u1ed1t v\u00f2ng \u0111\u1eddi c\u1ee7a n\u00f3, v\u00e0, c\u00f3 th\u1ec3, \u0111\u1ec3 nh\u1eadn ra gi\u00e1 tr\u1ecb c\u1ee9u h\u1ed9 c\u1ee7a n\u00f3. \u1ede \u0111\u00e2y, khi gi\u00e1 tr\u1ecb hi\u1ec7n t\u1ea1i c\u1ee7a c\u00e1c d\u00f2ng ti\u1ec1n c\u00f2n l\u1ea1i gi\u1ea3m xu\u1ed1ng d\u01b0\u1edbi gi\u00e1 tr\u1ecb thanh l\u00fd, t\u00e0i s\u1ea3n c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c b\u00e1n v\u00e0 h\u00e0nh \u0111\u1ed9ng n\u00e0y th\u1ef1c s\u1ef1 l\u00e0 vi\u1ec7c th\u1ef1c hi\u1ec7n quy\u1ec1n ch\u1ecdn b\u00e1n. T\u00f9y ch\u1ecdn n\u00e0y c\u00f2n \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c g\u1ecdi l\u00e0 t\u00f9y ch\u1ecdn Ch\u1ea5m d\u1ee9t. C\u00e1c t\u00f9y ch\u1ecdn t\u1eeb b\u1ecf theo phong c\u00e1ch M\u1ef9.<\/p>\n\n\n\n – T\u00f9y ch\u1ecdn tr\u00ecnh t\u1ef1:<\/em><\/strong> T\u00f9y ch\u1ecdn n\u00e0y li\u00ean quan \u0111\u1ebfn t\u00f9y ch\u1ecdn b\u1eaft \u0111\u1ea7u \u1edf tr\u00ean, m\u1eb7c d\u00f9 \u0111\u00f2i h\u1ecfi s\u1ef1 linh ho\u1ea1t v\u1ec1 th\u1eddi gian c\u1ee7a nhi\u1ec1u d\u1ef1 \u00e1n li\u00ean quan \u0111\u1ebfn nhau: ph\u00e2n t\u00edch \u1edf \u0111\u00e2y l\u00e0 li\u1ec7u vi\u1ec7c th\u1ef1c hi\u1ec7n c\u00e1c d\u1ef1 \u00e1n n\u00e0y tu\u1ea7n t\u1ef1 hay song song l\u00e0 thu\u1eadn l\u1ee3i. \u1ede \u0111\u00e2y, quan s\u00e1t c\u00e1c k\u1ebft qu\u1ea3 li\u00ean quan \u0111\u1ebfn d\u1ef1 \u00e1n \u0111\u1ea7u ti\u00ean, c\u00f4ng ty c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 gi\u1ea3i quy\u1ebft m\u1ed9t s\u1ed1 s\u1ef1 kh\u00f4ng ch\u1eafc ch\u1eafn li\u00ean quan \u0111\u1ebfn li\u00ean doanh n\u00f3i chung. Sau khi gi\u1ea3i quy\u1ebft, ban qu\u1ea3n l\u00fd c\u00f3 quy\u1ec1n l\u1ef1a ch\u1ecdn ti\u1ebfn h\u00e0nh ho\u1eb7c kh\u00f4ng ti\u1ebfn h\u00e0nh v\u1edbi s\u1ef1 ph\u00e1t tri\u1ec3n c\u1ee7a c\u00e1c d\u1ef1 \u00e1n kh\u00e1c. N\u1ebfu \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c th\u1ef1c hi\u1ec7n song song, qu\u1ea3n l\u00fd s\u1ebd \u0111\u00e3 ti\u00eau t\u1ed1n c\u00e1c ngu\u1ed3n l\u1ef1c v\u00e0 gi\u00e1 tr\u1ecb c\u1ee7a t\u00f9y ch\u1ecdn kh\u00f4ng chi ti\u00eau ch\u00fang b\u1ecb m\u1ea5t. Tr\u00ecnh t\u1ef1 c\u1ee7a c\u00e1c d\u1ef1 \u00e1n l\u00e0 m\u1ed9t v\u1ea5n \u0111\u1ec1 quan tr\u1ecdng trong chi\u1ebfn l\u01b0\u1ee3c c\u1ee7a c\u00f4ng ty. Li\u00ean quan \u1edf \u0111\u00e2y c\u0169ng l\u00e0 kh\u00e1i ni\u1ec7m v\u1ec1 c\u00e1c t\u00f9y ch\u1ecdn Intraproject so v\u1edbi Interproject.<\/p>\n\n\n\n C\u00e1c t\u00f9y ch\u1ecdn li\u00ean quan \u0111\u1ebfn ho\u1ea1t \u0111\u1ed9ng c\u1ee7a d\u1ef1 \u00e1n<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n Qu\u1ea3n l\u00fd c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 c\u00f3 s\u1ef1 linh ho\u1ea1t li\u00ean quan \u0111\u1ebfn s\u1ea3n ph\u1ea9m \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c s\u1ea3n xu\u1ea5t v\u00e0 \/ ho\u1eb7c quy tr\u00ecnh \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c s\u1eed d\u1ee5ng trong s\u1ea3n xu\u1ea5t. Nh\u01b0 trong c\u00e1c tr\u01b0\u1eddng h\u1ee3p tr\u01b0\u1edbc, t\u00ednh linh ho\u1ea1t n\u00e0y l\u00e0m t\u0103ng gi\u00e1 tr\u1ecb c\u1ee7a d\u1ef1 \u00e1n, t\u01b0\u01a1ng \u1ee9ng v\u1edbi “ph\u00ed b\u1ea3o hi\u1ec3m” \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c tr\u1ea3 cho t\u00f9y ch\u1ecdn th\u1ef1c.<\/p>\n\n\n\n – T\u00f9y ch\u1ecdn tr\u1ed9n \u0111\u1ea7u ra:<\/em><\/strong> T\u00f9y ch\u1ecdn s\u1ea3n xu\u1ea5t c\u00e1c \u0111\u1ea7u ra kh\u00e1c nhau t\u1eeb c\u00f9ng m\u1ed9t c\u01a1 s\u1edf \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c g\u1ecdi l\u00e0 t\u00f9y ch\u1ecdn tr\u1ed9n \u0111\u1ea7u ra ho\u1eb7c t\u00ednh linh ho\u1ea1t c\u1ee7a s\u1ea3n ph\u1ea9m. C\u00e1c t\u00f9y ch\u1ecdn n\u00e0y \u0111\u1eb7c bi\u1ec7t c\u00f3 gi\u00e1 tr\u1ecb trong c\u00e1c ng\u00e0nh c\u00f4ng nghi\u1ec7p n\u01a1i nhu c\u1ea7u bi\u1ebfn \u0111\u1ed9ng ho\u1eb7c n\u01a1i t\u1ed5ng s\u1ed1 l\u01b0\u1ee3ng y\u00eau c\u1ea7u cho m\u1ed9t h\u00e0ng h\u00f3a c\u1ee5 th\u1ec3 th\u01b0\u1eddng th\u1ea5p v\u00e0 ban qu\u1ea3n l\u00fd mu\u1ed1n thay \u0111\u1ed5i sang m\u1ed9t s\u1ea3n ph\u1ea9m kh\u00e1c m\u1ed9t c\u00e1ch nhanh ch\u00f3ng n\u1ebfu \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c y\u00eau c\u1ea7u.<\/p>\n\n\n\n – T\u00f9y ch\u1ecdn tr\u1ed9n \u0111\u1ea7u v\u00e0o:<\/em><\/strong> T\u00f9y ch\u1ecdn tr\u1ed9n \u0111\u1ea7u v\u00e0o – t\u00ednh linh ho\u1ea1t c\u1ee7a quy tr\u00ecnh – cho ph\u00e9p qu\u1ea3n l\u00fd s\u1eed d\u1ee5ng c\u00e1c \u0111\u1ea7u v\u00e0o kh\u00e1c nhau \u0111\u1ec3 t\u1ea1o ra c\u00f9ng m\u1ed9t \u0111\u1ea7u ra ph\u00f9 h\u1ee3p. V\u00ed d\u1ee5, m\u1ed9t n\u00f4ng d\u00e2n s\u1ebd \u0111\u00e1nh gi\u00e1 cao t\u00f9y ch\u1ecdn chuy\u1ec3n \u0111\u1ed5i gi\u1eefa c\u00e1c ngu\u1ed3n th\u1ee9c \u0103n kh\u00e1c nhau, th\u00edch s\u1eed d\u1ee5ng gi\u1ea3i ph\u00e1p thay th\u1ebf r\u1ebb nh\u1ea5t c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 ch\u1ea5p nh\u1eadn \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c. V\u00ed d\u1ee5, m\u1ed9t ti\u1ec7n \u00edch \u0111i\u1ec7n c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 c\u00f3 t\u00f9y ch\u1ecdn chuy\u1ec3n \u0111\u1ed5i gi\u1eefa c\u00e1c ngu\u1ed3n nhi\u00ean li\u1ec7u kh\u00e1c nhau \u0111\u1ec3 s\u1ea3n xu\u1ea5t \u0111i\u1ec7n, v\u00e0 do \u0111\u00f3 m\u1ed9t nh\u00e0 m\u00e1y linh ho\u1ea1t, m\u1eb7c d\u00f9 \u0111\u1eaft h\u01a1n th\u1ef1c s\u1ef1 c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 c\u00f3 gi\u00e1 tr\u1ecb h\u01a1n.<\/p>\n\n\n\n – T\u00f9y ch\u1ecdn quy m\u00f4 ho\u1ea1t \u0111\u1ed9ng:<\/em><\/strong> Ban qu\u1ea3n l\u00fd c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 c\u00f3 t\u00f9y ch\u1ecdn thay \u0111\u1ed5i t\u1ef7 l\u1ec7 \u0111\u1ea7u ra tr\u00ean m\u1ed9t \u0111\u01a1n v\u1ecb th\u1eddi gian ho\u1eb7c thay \u0111\u1ed5i t\u1ed5ng th\u1eddi gian ch\u1ea1y s\u1ea3n xu\u1ea5t, v\u00ed d\u1ee5 nh\u01b0 \u0111\u1ec3 \u0111\u00e1p \u1ee9ng v\u1edbi \u0111i\u1ec1u ki\u1ec7n th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng. C\u00e1c t\u00f9y ch\u1ecdn n\u00e0y c\u00f2n \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c g\u1ecdi l\u00e0 t\u00f9y ch\u1ecdn c\u01b0\u1eddng \u0111\u1ed9.<\/p>\n\n\n\n \u0110\u1ecbnh gi\u00e1<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n V\u1edbi nh\u1eefng \u0111i\u1ec1u tr\u00ean, r\u00f5 r\u00e0ng l\u00e0 c\u00f3 m\u1ed9t s\u1ef1 t\u01b0\u01a1ng \u0111\u1ed3ng gi\u1eefa c\u00e1c l\u1ef1a ch\u1ecdn th\u1ef1c t\u1ebf v\u00e0 c\u00e1c l\u1ef1a ch\u1ecdn t\u00e0i ch\u00ednh, v\u00e0 do \u0111\u00f3 ch\u00fang t\u00f4i mong \u0111\u1ee3i m\u00f4 h\u00ecnh v\u00e0 ph\u00e2n t\u00edch d\u1ef1a tr\u00ean quy\u1ec1n ch\u1ecdn s\u1ebd \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c \u00e1p d\u1ee5ng \u1edf \u0111\u00e2y. \u0110\u1ed3ng th\u1eddi, \u0111i\u1ec1u quan tr\u1ecdng l\u00e0 ph\u1ea3i hi\u1ec3u t\u1ea1i sao c\u00e1c k\u1ef9 thu\u1eadt \u0111\u1ecbnh gi\u00e1 ti\u00eau chu\u1ea9n h\u01a1n c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 kh\u00f4ng \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c \u00e1p d\u1ee5ng cho ROV.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Kh\u1ea3 n\u0103ng \u00e1p d\u1ee5ng c\u00e1c k\u1ef9 thu\u1eadt ti\u00eau chu\u1ea9n<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n ROV th\u01b0\u1eddng t\u01b0\u01a1ng ph\u1ea3n v\u1edbi c\u00e1c k\u1ef9 thu\u1eadt l\u1eadp ng\u00e2n s\u00e1ch v\u1ed1n ti\u00eau chu\u1ea9n h\u01a1n, ch\u1eb3ng h\u1ea1n nh\u01b0 ph\u00e2n t\u00edch d\u00f2ng ti\u1ec1n chi\u1ebft kh\u1ea5u (DCF) \/ gi\u00e1 tr\u1ecb hi\u1ec7n t\u1ea1i r\u00f2ng (NPV). [2] Theo c\u00e1ch ti\u1ebfp c\u1eadn NPV “ti\u00eau chu\u1ea9n” n\u00e0y, d\u00f2ng ti\u1ec1n d\u1ef1 ki\u1ebfn trong t\u01b0\u01a1ng lai c\u00f3 gi\u00e1 tr\u1ecb theo th\u01b0\u1edbc \u0111o x\u00e1c su\u1ea5t th\u1ef1c nghi\u1ec7m v\u1edbi t\u1ef7 l\u1ec7 chi\u1ebft kh\u1ea5u ph\u1ea3n \u00e1nh r\u1ee7i ro nh\u00fang trong d\u1ef1 \u00e1n; xem CAPM, APT, WACC. \u1ede \u0111\u00e2y, ch\u1ec9 xem x\u00e9t c\u00e1c d\u00f2ng ti\u1ec1n d\u1ef1 ki\u1ebfn, v\u00e0 “t\u00ednh linh ho\u1ea1t” \u0111\u1ec3 thay \u0111\u1ed5i chi\u1ebfn l\u01b0\u1ee3c c\u1ee7a c\u00f4ng ty theo quan \u0111i\u1ec3m hi\u1ec7n th\u1ef1c h\u00f3a th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng th\u1ef1c t\u1ebf l\u00e0 “b\u1ecf qua”; xem b\u00ean d\u01b0\u1edbi c\u0169ng nh\u01b0 T\u00e0i ch\u00ednh doanh nghi\u1ec7p \u00a7 \u0110\u00e1nh gi\u00e1 t\u00ednh linh ho\u1ea1t. Khu\u00f4n kh\u1ed5 NPV (ng\u1ea7m) gi\u1ea3 \u0111\u1ecbnh r\u1eb1ng ban l\u00e3nh \u0111\u1ea1o l\u00e0 “th\u1ee5 \u0111\u1ed9ng” \u0111\u1ed1i v\u1edbi kho\u1ea3n \u0111\u1ea7u t\u01b0 v\u1ed1n c\u1ee7a h\u1ecd m\u1ed9t khi \u0111\u00e3 cam k\u1ebft. M\u1ed9t s\u1ed1 nh\u00e0 ph\u00e2n t\u00edch gi\u1ea3i th\u00edch cho s\u1ef1 kh\u00f4ng ch\u1eafc ch\u1eafn n\u00e0y b\u1eb1ng c\u00e1ch (i) \u0111i\u1ec1u ch\u1ec9nh t\u1ef7 l\u1ec7 chi\u1ebft kh\u1ea5u, v\u00ed d\u1ee5 b\u1eb1ng c\u00e1ch t\u0103ng chi ph\u00ed v\u1ed1n, ho\u1eb7c (ii) \u0111i\u1ec1u ch\u1ec9nh d\u00f2ng ti\u1ec1n, v\u00ed d\u1ee5: s\u1eed d\u1ee5ng c\u00e1c kho\u1ea3n t\u01b0\u01a1ng \u0111\u01b0\u01a1ng ch\u1eafc ch\u1eafn, ho\u1eb7c (iii) \u00e1p d\u1ee5ng “c\u1eaft t\u00f3c” (ch\u1ee7 quan) cho c\u00e1c con s\u1ed1 d\u1ef1 b\u00e1o, ho\u1eb7c (iv) th\u00f4ng qua tr\u1ecdng s\u1ed1 x\u00e1c su\u1ea5t nh\u01b0 trong rNPV. Tuy nhi\u00ean, ngay c\u1ea3 khi \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c s\u1eed d\u1ee5ng, c\u00e1c ph\u01b0\u01a1ng ph\u00e1p sau n\u00e0y th\u01b0\u1eddng kh\u00f4ng t\u00ednh \u0111\u1ebfn nh\u1eefng thay \u0111\u1ed5i v\u1ec1 r\u1ee7i ro trong v\u00f2ng \u0111\u1eddi c\u1ee7a d\u1ef1 \u00e1n v\u00e0 do \u0111\u00f3 kh\u00f4ng th\u00edch \u1ee9ng v\u1edbi vi\u1ec7c \u0111i\u1ec1u ch\u1ec9nh r\u1ee7i ro.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Ng\u01b0\u1ee3c l\u1ea1i, ROV gi\u1ea3 \u0111\u1ecbnh r\u1eb1ng qu\u1ea3n l\u00fd l\u00e0 “t\u00edch c\u1ef1c” v\u00e0 c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 “li\u00ean t\u1ee5c” \u0111\u00e1p \u1ee9ng v\u1edbi nh\u1eefng thay \u0111\u1ed5i c\u1ee7a th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng. C\u00e1c l\u1ef1a ch\u1ecdn th\u1ef1c s\u1ef1 xem x\u00e9t “t\u1ea5t c\u1ea3” c\u00e1c k\u1ecbch b\u1ea3n (ho\u1eb7c “tr\u1ea1ng th\u00e1i”) v\u00e0 ch\u1ec9 ra h\u00e0nh \u0111\u1ed9ng t\u1ed1t nh\u1ea5t c\u1ee7a c\u00f4ng ty trong m\u1ed7i s\u1ef1 ki\u1ec7n ng\u1eabu nhi\u00ean n\u00e0y. B\u1edfi v\u00ec ban l\u00e3nh \u0111\u1ea1o th\u00edch \u1ee9ng v\u1edbi t\u1eebng k\u1ebft qu\u1ea3 ti\u00eau c\u1ef1c b\u1eb1ng c\u00e1ch gi\u1ea3m m\u1ee9c \u0111\u1ed9 ti\u1ebfp x\u00fac v\u00e0 c\u00e1c k\u1ecbch b\u1ea3n t\u00edch c\u1ef1c b\u1eb1ng c\u00e1ch m\u1edf r\u1ed9ng quy m\u00f4, c\u00f4ng ty \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c h\u01b0\u1edfng l\u1ee3i t\u1eeb s\u1ef1 kh\u00f4ng ch\u1eafc ch\u1eafn tr\u00ean th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng c\u01a1 s\u1edf, \u0111\u1ea1t \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c s\u1ef1 thay \u0111\u1ed5i l\u1ee3i nhu\u1eadn th\u1ea5p h\u01a1n so v\u1edbi l\u1eadp tr\u01b0\u1eddng cam k\u1ebft \/ NPV. B\u1ea3n ch\u1ea5t ng\u1eabu nhi\u00ean c\u1ee7a l\u1ee3i nhu\u1eadn trong t\u01b0\u01a1ng lai trong c\u00e1c m\u00f4 h\u00ecnh quy\u1ec1n ch\u1ecdn th\u1ef1c \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c n\u1eafm b\u1eaft b\u1eb1ng c\u00e1ch s\u1eed d\u1ee5ng c\u00e1c k\u1ef9 thu\u1eadt \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c ph\u00e1t tri\u1ec3n cho c\u00e1c l\u1ef1a ch\u1ecdn t\u00e0i ch\u00ednh trong t\u00e0i li\u1ec7u v\u1ec1 ph\u00e2n t\u00edch y\u00eau c\u1ea7u b\u1ed3i th\u01b0\u1eddng ng\u1eabu nhi\u00ean. \u1ede \u0111\u00e2y, c\u00e1ch ti\u1ebfp c\u1eadn, \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c g\u1ecdi l\u00e0 \u0111\u1ecbnh gi\u00e1 trung l\u1eadp r\u1ee7i ro, bao g\u1ed3m \u0111i\u1ec1u ch\u1ec9nh ph\u00e2n ph\u1ed1i x\u00e1c su\u1ea5t \u0111\u1ec3 xem x\u00e9t r\u1ee7i ro, trong khi chi\u1ebft kh\u1ea5u \u1edf t\u1ef7 l\u1ec7 phi r\u1ee7i ro. K\u1ef9 thu\u1eadt n\u00e0y c\u00f2n \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c g\u1ecdi l\u00e0 ph\u01b0\u01a1ng ph\u00e1p “martingale” v\u00e0 s\u1eed d\u1ee5ng bi\u1ec7n ph\u00e1p trung l\u1eadp r\u1ee7i ro. \u0110\u1ec3 bi\u1ebft c\u00e1c c\u00e2n nh\u1eafc k\u1ef9 thu\u1eadt t\u1ea1i \u0111\u00e2y, h\u00e3y xem b\u00ean d\u01b0\u1edbi. \u0110\u1ed1i v\u1edbi c\u00e1c cu\u1ed9c th\u1ea3o lu\u1eadn li\u00ean quan – v\u00e0 bi\u1ec3u di\u1ec5n \u0111\u1ed3 h\u1ecda – xem ph\u01b0\u01a1ng ph\u00e1p Datar-Mathews \u0111\u1ec3 \u0111\u1ecbnh gi\u00e1 quy\u1ec1n ch\u1ecdn th\u1ef1c.<\/p>\n\n\n\n V\u1edbi c\u00e1c ph\u01b0\u01a1ng ph\u00e1p x\u1eed l\u00fd kh\u00e1c nhau n\u00e0y, gi\u00e1 tr\u1ecb quy\u1ec1n ch\u1ecdn th\u1ef1c c\u1ee7a m\u1ed9t d\u1ef1 \u00e1n th\u01b0\u1eddng cao h\u01a1n NPV – v\u00e0 s\u1ef1 kh\u00e1c bi\u1ec7t s\u1ebd \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c \u0111\u00e1nh d\u1ea5u r\u00f5 nh\u1ea5t trong c\u00e1c d\u1ef1 \u00e1n c\u00f3 t\u00ednh linh ho\u1ea1t, d\u1ef1 ph\u00f2ng v\u00e0 bi\u1ebfn \u0111\u1ed9ng l\u1edbn. \u0110\u1ed1i v\u1edbi c\u00e1c l\u1ef1a ch\u1ecdn t\u00e0i ch\u00ednh, s\u1ef1 bi\u1ebfn \u0111\u1ed9ng cao h\u01a1n c\u1ee7a c\u01a1 s\u1edf d\u1eabn \u0111\u1ebfn gi\u00e1 tr\u1ecb cao h\u01a1n. (M\u1ed9t \u1ee9ng d\u1ee5ng c\u1ee7a \u0110\u1ecbnh gi\u00e1 Quy\u1ec1n ch\u1ecdn Th\u1ef1c trong ng\u00e0nh ng\u00e2n h\u00e0ng Philippines cho th\u1ea5y m\u1ee9c \u0111\u1ed9 bi\u1ebfn \u0111\u1ed9ng thu nh\u1eadp gia t\u0103ng c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 \u1ea3nh h\u01b0\u1edfng x\u1ea5u \u0111\u1ebfn gi\u00e1 tr\u1ecb quy\u1ec1n ch\u1ecdn tr\u00ean danh m\u1ee5c cho vay, khi xem x\u00e9t s\u1ef1 b\u1ea5t \u0111\u1ed1i x\u1ee9ng th\u00f4ng tin. Trong tr\u01b0\u1eddng h\u1ee3p n\u00e0y, s\u1ef1 bi\u1ebfn \u0111\u1ed9ng gia t\u0103ng c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 gi\u1edbi h\u1ea1n gi\u00e1 tr\u1ecb c\u1ee7a m\u1ed9t quy\u1ec1n ch\u1ecdn. M\u1ed9t ph\u1ea7n c\u1ee7a nh\u1eefng l\u1eddi ch\u1ec9 tr\u00edch (v\u00e0 sau \u0111\u00f3 l\u00e0 vi\u1ec7c \u00e1p d\u1ee5ng ch\u1eadm) \u0110\u1ecbnh gi\u00e1 Quy\u1ec1n ch\u1ecdn Th\u1ef1c trong th\u1ef1c t\u1ebf v\u00e0 h\u1ecdc vi\u1ec7n b\u1eaft ngu\u1ed3n t\u1eeb c\u00e1c gi\u00e1 tr\u1ecb th\u01b0\u1eddng cao h\u01a1n \u0111\u1ed1i v\u1edbi c\u00e1c t\u00e0i s\u1ea3n c\u01a1 b\u1ea3n m\u00e0 c\u00e1c ch\u1ee9c n\u0103ng n\u00e0y t\u1ea1o ra. Tuy nhi\u00ean, c\u00e1c nghi\u00ean c\u1ee9u \u0111\u00e3 ch\u1ec9 ra r\u1eb1ng c\u00e1c m\u00f4 h\u00ecnh n\u00e0y l\u00e0 nh\u1eefng \u01b0\u1edbc t\u00ednh \u0111\u00e1ng tin c\u1eady v\u1ec1 gi\u00e1 tr\u1ecb t\u00e0i s\u1ea3n c\u01a1 b\u1ea3n, khi c\u00e1c gi\u00e1 tr\u1ecb \u0111\u1ea7u v\u00e0o \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c x\u00e1c \u0111\u1ecbnh \u0111\u00fang.<\/p>\n\n\n\n \u0110\u1ecbnh gi\u00e1 d\u1ef1a tr\u00ean quy\u1ec1n ch\u1ecdn<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n M\u1eb7c d\u00f9 c\u00f3 nhi\u1ec1u \u0111i\u1ec3m t\u01b0\u01a1ng \u0111\u1ed3ng gi\u1eefa m\u00f4 h\u00ecnh h\u00f3a c\u00e1c l\u1ef1a ch\u1ecdn th\u1ef1c v\u00e0 c\u00e1c l\u1ef1a ch\u1ecdn t\u00e0i ch\u00ednh, ROV \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c ph\u00e2n bi\u1ec7t v\u1edbi c\u00e1i sau, \u1edf ch\u1ed7 n\u00f3 t\u00ednh \u0111\u1ebfn s\u1ef1 kh\u00f4ng ch\u1eafc ch\u1eafn v\u1ec1 s\u1ef1 ph\u00e1t tri\u1ec3n trong t\u01b0\u01a1ng lai c\u1ee7a c\u00e1c tham s\u1ed1 x\u00e1c \u0111\u1ecbnh gi\u00e1 tr\u1ecb c\u1ee7a d\u1ef1 \u00e1n, c\u00f9ng v\u1edbi kh\u1ea3 n\u0103ng c\u1ee7a ban qu\u1ea3n l\u00fd \u0111\u1ec3 \u0111\u00e1p \u1ee9ng v\u1edbi s\u1ef1 ph\u00e1t tri\u1ec3n c\u1ee7a c\u00e1c tham s\u1ed1 n\u00e0y. Ch\u00ednh hi\u1ec7u \u1ee9ng k\u1ebft h\u1ee3p c\u1ee7a nh\u1eefng \u0111i\u1ec1u n\u00e0y l\u00e0m cho ROV v\u1ec1 m\u1eb7t k\u1ef9 thu\u1eadt tr\u1edf n\u00ean kh\u00f3 kh\u0103n h\u01a1n so v\u1edbi c\u00e1c l\u1ef1a ch\u1ecdn thay th\u1ebf c\u1ee7a n\u00f3.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Tr\u01b0\u1edbc ti\u00ean, b\u1ea1n ph\u1ea3i t\u00ecm ra \u0111\u1ea7y \u0111\u1ee7 c\u00e1c gi\u00e1 tr\u1ecb c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 c\u00f3 cho t\u00e0i s\u1ea3n c\u01a1 b\u1ea3n…. \u0110i\u1ec1u n\u00e0y li\u00ean quan \u0111\u1ebfn vi\u1ec7c \u01b0\u1edbc t\u00ednh gi\u00e1 tr\u1ecb c\u1ee7a t\u00e0i s\u1ea3n s\u1ebd l\u00e0 bao nhi\u00eau n\u1ebfu n\u00f3 t\u1ed3n t\u1ea1i ng\u00e0y h\u00f4m nay v\u00e0 d\u1ef1 b\u00e1o \u0111\u1ec3 xem to\u00e0n b\u1ed9 c\u00e1c gi\u00e1 tr\u1ecb c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 c\u00f3 trong t\u01b0\u01a1ng lai… [Nh\u1eefng t\u00ednh to\u00e1n n\u00e0y] cung c\u1ea5p cho b\u1ea1n c\u00e1c con s\u1ed1 cho t\u1ea5t c\u1ea3 c\u00e1c gi\u00e1 tr\u1ecb c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 c\u00f3 trong t\u01b0\u01a1ng lai c\u1ee7a t\u00f9y ch\u1ecdn t\u1ea1i c\u00e1c \u0111i\u1ec3m kh\u00e1c nhau c\u1ea7n \u0111\u01b0a ra quy\u1ebft \u0111\u1ecbnh v\u1ec1 vi\u1ec7c c\u00f3 n\u00ean ti\u1ebfp t\u1ee5c v\u1edbi d\u1ef1 \u00e1n hay kh\u00f4ng…<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n Do \u0111\u00f3, khi \u0111\u1ecbnh gi\u00e1 quy\u1ec1n ch\u1ecdn th\u1ef1c, nh\u00e0 ph\u00e2n t\u00edch ph\u1ea3i xem x\u00e9t c\u00e1c y\u1ebfu t\u1ed1 \u0111\u1ea7u v\u00e0o \u0111\u1ec3 \u0111\u1ecbnh gi\u00e1, ph\u01b0\u01a1ng ph\u00e1p \u0111\u1ecbnh gi\u00e1 \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c s\u1eed d\u1ee5ng v\u00e0 li\u1ec7u c\u00f3 b\u1ea5t k\u1ef3 gi\u1edbi h\u1ea1n k\u1ef9 thu\u1eadt n\u00e0o c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 \u00e1p d\u1ee5ng hay kh\u00f4ng. V\u1ec1 m\u1eb7t kh\u00e1i ni\u1ec7m, \u0111\u1ecbnh gi\u00e1 m\u1ed9t l\u1ef1a ch\u1ecdn th\u1ef1c s\u1ef1 xem x\u00e9t ph\u00ed b\u1ea3o hi\u1ec3m gi\u1eefa d\u00f2ng v\u1ed1n v\u00e0 chi ph\u00ed cho m\u1ed9t d\u1ef1 \u00e1n c\u1ee5 th\u1ec3. \u0110\u1ea7u v\u00e0o cho gi\u00e1 tr\u1ecb c\u1ee7a m\u1ed9t l\u1ef1a ch\u1ecdn th\u1ef1c (th\u1eddi gian, t\u1ef7 l\u1ec7 chi\u1ebft kh\u1ea5u, bi\u1ebfn \u0111\u1ed9ng, d\u00f2ng ti\u1ec1n v\u00e0o v\u00e0 ra) \u0111\u1ec1u b\u1ecb \u1ea3nh h\u01b0\u1edfng b\u1edfi c\u00e1c \u0111i\u1ec1u kho\u1ea3n kinh doanh v\u00e0 c\u00e1c y\u1ebfu t\u1ed1 m\u00f4i tr\u01b0\u1eddng b\u00ean ngo\u00e0i m\u00e0 m\u1ed9t d\u1ef1 \u00e1n t\u1ed3n t\u1ea1i. C\u00e1c \u0111i\u1ec1u kho\u1ea3n kinh doanh nh\u01b0 th\u00f4ng tin li\u00ean quan \u0111\u1ebfn quy\u1ec1n s\u1edf h\u1eefu, chi ph\u00ed thu th\u1eadp d\u1eef li\u1ec7u v\u00e0 b\u1eb1ng s\u00e1ng ch\u1ebf, \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c h\u00ecnh th\u00e0nh li\u00ean quan \u0111\u1ebfn c\u00e1c y\u1ebfu t\u1ed1 ch\u00ednh tr\u1ecb, m\u00f4i tr\u01b0\u1eddng, v\u0103n h\u00f3a x\u00e3 h\u1ed9i, c\u00f4ng ngh\u1ec7, m\u00f4i tr\u01b0\u1eddng v\u00e0 ph\u00e1p l\u00fd \u1ea3nh h\u01b0\u1edfng \u0111\u1ebfn m\u1ed9t ng\u00e0nh. C\u0169ng gi\u1ed1ng nh\u01b0 c\u00e1c \u0111i\u1ec1u kho\u1ea3n kinh doanh b\u1ecb \u1ea3nh h\u01b0\u1edfng b\u1edfi c\u00e1c y\u1ebfu t\u1ed1 m\u00f4i tr\u01b0\u1eddng b\u00ean ngo\u00e0i, nh\u1eefng tr\u01b0\u1eddng h\u1ee3p t\u01b0\u01a1ng t\u1ef1 n\u00e0y \u1ea3nh h\u01b0\u1edfng \u0111\u1ebfn s\u1ef1 bi\u1ebfn \u0111\u1ed9ng c\u1ee7a l\u1ee3i nhu\u1eadn, c\u0169ng nh\u01b0 t\u1ef7 l\u1ec7 chi\u1ebft kh\u1ea5u (nh\u01b0 r\u1ee7i ro c\u1ee5 th\u1ec3 c\u1ee7a c\u00f4ng ty ho\u1eb7c d\u1ef1 \u00e1n). H\u01a1n n\u1eefa, c\u00e1c \u1ea3nh h\u01b0\u1edfng m\u00f4i tr\u01b0\u1eddng b\u00ean ngo\u00e0i \u1ea3nh h\u01b0\u1edfng \u0111\u1ebfn m\u1ed9t ng\u00e0nh c\u00f4ng nghi\u1ec7p \u1ea3nh h\u01b0\u1edfng \u0111\u1ebfn c\u00e1c d\u1ef1 b\u00e1o v\u1ec1 d\u00f2ng v\u1ed1n v\u00e0 chi ti\u00eau d\u1ef1 ki\u1ebfn.<\/p>\n\n\n\n \u0110\u1ea7u v\u00e0o th\u1ea9m \u0111\u1ecbnh gi\u00e1<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n Do s\u1ef1 t\u01b0\u01a1ng \u0111\u1ed3ng trong c\u00e1ch ti\u1ebfp c\u1eadn \u0111\u1ecbnh gi\u00e1, c\u00e1c \u0111\u1ea7u v\u00e0o c\u1ea7n thi\u1ebft \u0111\u1ec3 m\u00f4 h\u00ecnh h\u00f3a quy\u1ec1n ch\u1ecdn th\u1ef1c t\u01b0\u01a1ng \u1ee9ng, n\u00f3i chung, v\u1edbi nh\u1eefng y\u1ebfu t\u1ed1 c\u1ea7n thi\u1ebft \u0111\u1ec3 \u0111\u1ecbnh gi\u00e1 quy\u1ec1n ch\u1ecdn t\u00e0i ch\u00ednh. Tuy nhi\u00ean, \u1ee9ng d\u1ee5ng c\u1ee5 th\u1ec3 nh\u01b0 sau:<\/p>\n\n\n\n C\u01a1 s\u1edf c\u1ee7a t\u00f9y ch\u1ecdn l\u00e0 d\u1ef1 \u00e1n \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c \u0111\u1ec1 c\u1eadp, n\u00f3 \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c m\u00f4 h\u00ecnh h\u00f3a theo c\u00e1c thu\u1eadt ng\u1eef:<\/p>\n\n\n\n – Gi\u00e1 giao ngay:<\/em><\/strong> gi\u00e1 tr\u1ecb b\u1eaft \u0111\u1ea7u ho\u1eb7c hi\u1ec7n t\u1ea1i c\u1ee7a d\u1ef1 \u00e1n l\u00e0 b\u1eaft bu\u1ed9c: \u0111i\u1ec1u n\u00e0y th\u01b0\u1eddng d\u1ef1a tr\u00ean “d\u1ef1 \u0111o\u00e1n t\u1ed1t nh\u1ea5t” c\u1ee7a ban qu\u1ea3n l\u00fd v\u1ec1 t\u1ed5ng gi\u00e1 tr\u1ecb d\u00f2ng ti\u1ec1n c\u1ee7a d\u1ef1 \u00e1n v\u00e0 NPV k\u1ebft qu\u1ea3;<\/p>\n\n\n\n – Bi\u1ebfn \u0111\u1ed9ng:<\/em><\/strong> m\u1ed9t th\u01b0\u1edbc \u0111o cho s\u1ef1 kh\u00f4ng ch\u1eafc ch\u1eafn v\u1ec1 s\u1ef1 thay \u0111\u1ed5i gi\u00e1 tr\u1ecb theo th\u1eddi gian l\u00e0 b\u1eaft bu\u1ed9c:<\/p>\n\n\n\n + S\u1ef1 bi\u1ebfn \u0111\u1ed9ng v\u1ec1 gi\u00e1 tr\u1ecb d\u1ef1 \u00e1n th\u01b0\u1eddng \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c s\u1eed d\u1ee5ng, th\u01b0\u1eddng b\u1eaft ngu\u1ed3n t\u1eeb m\u00f4 ph\u1ecfng Monte Carlo; \u0111\u00f4i khi s\u1ef1 bi\u1ebfn \u0111\u1ed9ng c\u1ee7a d\u00f2ng ti\u1ec1n c\u1ee7a k\u1ef3 \u0111\u1ea7u ti\u00ean \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c \u01b0u ti\u00ean; xem th\u00eam trong T\u00e0i ch\u00ednh doanh nghi\u1ec7p \u0111\u1ec3 th\u1ea3o lu\u1eadn li\u00ean quan \u0111\u1ebfn \u01b0\u1edbc t\u00ednh NPV v\u00e0 bi\u1ebfn \u0111\u1ed9ng d\u1ef1 \u00e1n.<\/p>\n\n\n\n + M\u1ed9t s\u1ed1 nh\u00e0 ph\u00e2n t\u00edch thay th\u1ebf ch\u1ee9ng kho\u00e1n \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c li\u1ec7t k\u00ea l\u00e0m proxy, s\u1eed d\u1ee5ng bi\u1ebfn \u0111\u1ed9ng gi\u00e1 c\u1ee7a n\u00f3 (bi\u1ebfn \u0111\u1ed9ng l\u1ecbch s\u1eed) ho\u1eb7c, n\u1ebfu c\u00e1c t\u00f9y ch\u1ecdn t\u1ed3n t\u1ea1i tr\u00ean ch\u1ee9ng kho\u00e1n n\u00e0y, s\u1ef1 bi\u1ebfn \u0111\u1ed9ng ng\u1ee5 \u00fd c\u1ee7a ch\u00fang.<\/p>\n\n\n\n – C\u1ed5 t\u1ee9c \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c t\u1ea1o ra b\u1edfi t\u00e0i s\u1ea3n c\u01a1 b\u1ea3n:<\/em><\/strong> L\u00e0 m\u1ed9t ph\u1ea7n c\u1ee7a d\u1ef1 \u00e1n, c\u1ed5 t\u1ee9c t\u01b0\u01a1ng \u0111\u01b0\u01a1ng v\u1edbi b\u1ea5t k\u1ef3 thu nh\u1eadp n\u00e0o c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 thu \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c t\u1eeb t\u00e0i s\u1ea3n th\u1ef1c v\u00e0 tr\u1ea3 cho ch\u1ee7 s\u1edf h\u1eefu. Nh\u1eefng \u0111i\u1ec1u n\u00e0y l\u00e0m gi\u1ea3m s\u1ef1 \u0111\u00e1nh gi\u00e1 c\u1ee7a t\u00e0i s\u1ea3n.<\/p>\n\n\n\n \u0110\u1eb7c \u0111i\u1ec3m t\u00f9y ch\u1ecdn:<\/p>\n\n\n\n – Gi\u00e1 th\u1ef1c hi\u1ec7n:<\/em><\/strong> t\u01b0\u01a1ng \u1ee9ng v\u1edbi b\u1ea5t k\u1ef3 kho\u1ea3n chi \u0111\u1ea7u t\u01b0 n\u00e0o (kh\u00f4ng th\u1ec3 thu h\u1ed3i), th\u01b0\u1eddng l\u00e0 chi ph\u00ed ti\u1ec1m n\u0103ng c\u1ee7a d\u1ef1 \u00e1n. N\u00f3i chung, ban qu\u1ea3n l\u00fd s\u1ebd ti\u1ebfn h\u00e0nh (t\u1ee9c l\u00e0 quy\u1ec1n ch\u1ecdn s\u1ebd b\u1eb1ng ti\u1ec1n) v\u1edbi \u0111i\u1ec1u ki\u1ec7n gi\u00e1 tr\u1ecb hi\u1ec7n t\u1ea1i c\u1ee7a d\u00f2ng ti\u1ec1n d\u1ef1 ki\u1ebfn v\u01b0\u1ee3t qu\u00e1 s\u1ed1 ti\u1ec1n n\u00e0y;<\/p>\n\n\n\n – Th\u1eddi h\u1ea1n quy\u1ec1n ch\u1ecdn:<\/em><\/strong> th\u1eddi gian m\u00e0 ban qu\u1ea3n l\u00fd c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 quy\u1ebft \u0111\u1ecbnh h\u00e0nh \u0111\u1ed9ng ho\u1eb7c kh\u00f4ng h\u00e0nh \u0111\u1ed9ng, t\u01b0\u01a1ng \u1ee9ng v\u1edbi v\u00f2ng \u0111\u1eddi c\u1ee7a quy\u1ec1n ch\u1ecdn. Nh\u01b0 tr\u00ean, c\u00e1c v\u00ed d\u1ee5 bao g\u1ed3m th\u1eddi gian h\u1ebft h\u1ea1n b\u1eb1ng s\u00e1ng ch\u1ebf ho\u1eb7c quy\u1ec1n kho\u00e1ng s\u1ea3n cho m\u1ed9t m\u1ecf m\u1edbi. Xem Gi\u00e1 tr\u1ecb th\u1eddi gian t\u00f9y ch\u1ecdn. L\u01b0u \u00fd r\u1eb1ng v\u1edbi s\u1ef1 linh ho\u1ea1t li\u00ean quan \u0111\u1ebfn th\u1eddi gian nh\u01b0 \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c m\u00f4 t\u1ea3, ph\u1ea3i th\u1eadn tr\u1ecdng \u1edf \u0111\u00e2y.<\/p>\n\n\n\n – Ki\u1ec3u t\u00f9y ch\u1ecdn v\u00e0 m\u00f4 h\u00ecnh ho\u00e1 t\u00f9y ch\u1ecdn:<\/em><\/strong> Kh\u1ea3 n\u0103ng c\u1ee7a ban qu\u1ea3n l\u00fd \u0111\u1ec3 \u0111\u00e1p \u1ee9ng v\u1edbi nh\u1eefng thay \u0111\u1ed5i v\u1ec1 gi\u00e1 tr\u1ecb \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c m\u00f4 h\u00ecnh h\u00f3a t\u1ea1i m\u1ed7i \u0111i\u1ec3m quy\u1ebft \u0111\u1ecbnh nh\u01b0 m\u1ed9t lo\u1ea1t c\u00e1c t\u00f9y ch\u1ecdn, nh\u01b0 tr\u00ean \u0111\u00e2y c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 bao g\u1ed3m, t\u1ee9c l\u00e0:<\/p>\n\n\n\n + T\u00f9y ch\u1ecdn k\u00fd h\u1ee3p \u0111\u1ed3ng v\u1edbi d\u1ef1 \u00e1n (m\u1ed9t t\u00f9y ch\u1ecdn b\u00e1n theo ki\u1ec3u M\u1ef9);<\/p>\n\n\n\n + T\u00f9y ch\u1ecdn t\u1eeb b\u1ecf d\u1ef1 \u00e1n (c\u0169ng l\u00e0 m\u1ed9t ng\u01b0\u1eddi M\u1ef9);<\/p>\n\n\n\n + T\u00f9y ch\u1ecdn m\u1edf r\u1ed9ng ho\u1eb7c m\u1edf r\u1ed9ng d\u1ef1 \u00e1n (c\u1ea3 hai t\u00f9y ch\u1ecdn cu\u1ed9c g\u1ecdi ki\u1ec3u M\u1ef9);<\/p>\n\n\n\n + T\u00f9y ch\u1ecdn chuy\u1ec3n \u0111\u1ed5i ho\u1eb7c t\u00f9y ch\u1ecdn t\u1ed5ng h\u1ee3p c\u0169ng c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 \u00e1p d\u1ee5ng cho d\u1ef1 \u00e1n.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Ph\u01b0\u01a1ng ph\u00e1p \u0111\u1ecbnh gi\u00e1<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n C\u00e1c ph\u01b0\u01a1ng ph\u00e1p \u0111\u1ecbnh gi\u00e1 th\u01b0\u1eddng \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c s\u1eed d\u1ee5ng, t\u01b0\u01a1ng t\u1ef1 nh\u01b0 v\u1eady, \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c \u0111i\u1ec1u ch\u1ec9nh t\u1eeb c\u00e1c k\u1ef9 thu\u1eadt \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c ph\u00e1t tri\u1ec3n \u0111\u1ec3 \u0111\u1ecbnh gi\u00e1 c\u00e1c l\u1ef1a ch\u1ecdn t\u00e0i ch\u00ednh. L\u01b0u \u00fd r\u1eb1ng, n\u00f3i chung, trong khi h\u1ea7u h\u1ebft c\u00e1c v\u1ea5n \u0111\u1ec1 “th\u1ef1c t\u1ebf” cho ph\u00e9p t\u1eadp th\u1ec3 d\u1ee5c ki\u1ec3u M\u1ef9 t\u1ea1i b\u1ea5t k\u1ef3 th\u1eddi \u0111i\u1ec3m n\u00e0o (nhi\u1ec1u \u0111i\u1ec3m) trong v\u00f2ng \u0111\u1eddi c\u1ee7a d\u1ef1 \u00e1n v\u00e0 b\u1ecb \u1ea3nh h\u01b0\u1edfng b\u1edfi nhi\u1ec1u bi\u1ebfn c\u01a1 b\u1ea3n, c\u00e1c ph\u01b0\u01a1ng ph\u00e1p ti\u00eau chu\u1ea9n b\u1ecb gi\u1edbi h\u1ea1n li\u00ean quan \u0111\u1ebfn t\u00ednh chi\u1ec1u, t\u1eadp th\u1ec3 d\u1ee5c s\u1edbm ho\u1eb7c c\u1ea3 hai. Do \u0111\u00f3, khi l\u1ef1a ch\u1ecdn m\u1ed9t m\u00f4 h\u00ecnh, c\u00e1c nh\u00e0 ph\u00e2n t\u00edch ph\u1ea3i \u0111\u00e1nh \u0111\u1ed5i gi\u1eefa nh\u1eefng c\u00e2n nh\u1eafc n\u00e0y. M\u00f4 h\u00ecnh c\u0169ng ph\u1ea3i \u0111\u1ee7 linh ho\u1ea1t \u0111\u1ec3 cho ph\u00e9p quy t\u1eafc quy\u1ebft \u0111\u1ecbnh c\u00f3 li\u00ean quan \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c m\u00e3 h\u00f3a th\u00edch h\u1ee3p t\u1ea1i m\u1ed7i \u0111i\u1ec3m quy\u1ebft \u0111\u1ecbnh.<\/p>\n\n\n\n – H\u00ecnh th\u1ee9c kh\u00e9p k\u00edn, c\u00e1c gi\u1ea3i ph\u00e1p gi\u1ed1ng nh\u01b0 Black-Scholes \u0111\u00f4i khi \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c s\u1eed d\u1ee5ng. Ch\u00fang ch\u1ec9 \u00e1p d\u1ee5ng cho c\u00e1c t\u00f9y ch\u1ecdn ki\u1ec3u ch\u00e2u \u00c2u ho\u1eb7c quy\u1ec1n ch\u1ecdn v\u0129nh vi\u1ec5n c\u1ee7a M\u1ef9. L\u01b0u \u00fd r\u1eb1ng \u1ee9ng d\u1ee5ng n\u00e0y c\u1ee7a Black-Scholes gi\u1ea3 \u0111\u1ecbnh chi ph\u00ed kh\u00f4ng \u0111\u1ed5i – t\u1ee9c l\u00e0 x\u00e1c \u0111\u1ecbnh – chi ph\u00ed: trong tr\u01b0\u1eddng h\u1ee3p chi ph\u00ed c\u1ee7a d\u1ef1 \u00e1n, gi\u1ed1ng nh\u01b0 doanh thu c\u1ee7a n\u00f3, c\u0169ng \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c gi\u1ea3 \u0111\u1ecbnh ng\u1eabu nhi\u00ean, th\u00ec c\u00f4ng th\u1ee9c c\u1ee7a Margrabe c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 (n\u00ean) \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c \u00e1p d\u1ee5ng thay th\u1ebf, \u1edf \u0111\u00e2y \u0111\u1ecbnh gi\u00e1 t\u00f9y ch\u1ecdn “trao \u0111\u1ed5i” chi ph\u00ed l\u1ea5y doanh thu. (Li\u00ean quan, khi d\u1ef1 \u00e1n ti\u1ebfp x\u00fac v\u1edbi hai (ho\u1eb7c nhi\u1ec1u) s\u1ef1 kh\u00f4ng ch\u1eafc ch\u1eafn – v\u00ed d\u1ee5 nh\u01b0 t\u00e0i nguy\u00ean thi\u00ean nhi\u00ean, gi\u00e1 c\u1ea3 v\u00e0 s\u1ed1 l\u01b0\u1ee3ng – m\u1ed9t s\u1ed1 nh\u00e0 ph\u00e2n t\u00edch c\u1ed1 g\u1eafng s\u1eed d\u1ee5ng bi\u1ebfn \u0111\u1ed9ng t\u1ed5ng th\u1ec3; m\u1eb7c d\u00f9, \u0111i\u1ec1u n\u00e0y \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c coi ch\u00ednh x\u00e1c h\u01a1n l\u00e0 m\u1ed9t t\u00f9y ch\u1ecdn c\u1ea7u v\u1ed3ng, th\u01b0\u1eddng \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c \u0111\u00e1nh gi\u00e1 b\u1eb1ng c\u00e1ch s\u1eed d\u1ee5ng m\u00f4 ph\u1ecfng nh\u01b0 b\u00ean d\u01b0\u1edbi.)<\/p>\n\n\n\n – C\u00e1c ph\u01b0\u01a1ng ph\u00e1p \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c s\u1eed d\u1ee5ng ph\u1ed5 bi\u1ebfn nh\u1ea5t l\u00e0 m\u1ea1ng nh\u1ecb th\u1ee9c. Ch\u00fang \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c s\u1eed d\u1ee5ng r\u1ed9ng r\u00e3i h\u01a1n v\u00ec h\u1ea7u h\u1ebft c\u00e1c t\u00f9y ch\u1ecdn th\u1ef1c s\u1ef1 \u0111\u1ec1u theo phong c\u00e1ch M\u1ef9. Ngo\u00e0i ra, v\u00e0 \u0111\u1eb7c bi\u1ec7t, c\u00e1c m\u00f4 h\u00ecnh d\u1ef1a tr\u00ean m\u1ea1ng cho ph\u00e9p linh ho\u1ea1t khi th\u1ef1c hi\u1ec7n, trong \u0111\u00f3 c\u00e1c quy t\u1eafc c\u00f3 li\u00ean quan v\u00e0 kh\u00e1c nhau c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c m\u00e3 h\u00f3a t\u1ea1i m\u1ed7i n\u00fat. L\u01b0u \u00fd r\u1eb1ng m\u1ea1ng kh\u00f4ng th\u1ec3 d\u1ec5 d\u00e0ng x\u1eed l\u00fd c\u00e1c v\u1ea5n \u0111\u1ec1 chi\u1ec1u cao; X\u1eed l\u00fd chi ph\u00ed c\u1ee7a d\u1ef1 \u00e1n l\u00e0 ng\u1eabu nhi\u00ean s\u1ebd th\u00eam (\u00edt nh\u1ea5t) m\u1ed9t chi\u1ec1u v\u00e0o m\u1ea1ng tinh th\u1ec3, t\u0103ng s\u1ed1 l\u01b0\u1ee3ng n\u00fat k\u1ebft th\u00fac theo h\u00ecnh vu\u00f4ng (s\u1ed1 m\u0169 \u1edf \u0111\u00e2y, t\u01b0\u01a1ng \u1ee9ng v\u1edbi s\u1ed1 l\u01b0\u1ee3ng ngu\u1ed3n kh\u00f4ng ch\u1eafc ch\u1eafn).<\/p>\n\n\n\n – Ph\u01b0\u01a1ng ph\u00e1p Monte Carlo chuy\u00ean bi\u1ec7t c\u0169ng \u0111\u00e3 \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c ph\u00e1t tri\u1ec3n v\u00e0 ng\u00e0y c\u00e0ng \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c \u00e1p d\u1ee5ng cho c\u00e1c v\u1ea5n \u0111\u1ec1 chi\u1ec1u cao. L\u01b0u \u00fd r\u1eb1ng \u0111\u1ed1i v\u1edbi c\u00e1c t\u00f9y ch\u1ecdn th\u1ef1c theo phong c\u00e1ch M\u1ef9, \u1ee9ng d\u1ee5ng n\u00e0y c\u00f3 ph\u1ea7n ph\u1ee9c t\u1ea1p h\u01a1n; m\u1eb7c d\u00f9 nghi\u00ean c\u1ee9u g\u1ea7n \u0111\u00e2y [40] k\u1ebft h\u1ee3p c\u00e1ch ti\u1ebfp c\u1eadn b\u00ecnh ph\u01b0\u01a1ng t\u1ed1i thi\u1ec3u v\u1edbi m\u00f4 ph\u1ecfng, cho ph\u00e9p \u0111\u1ecbnh gi\u00e1 c\u00e1c l\u1ef1a ch\u1ecdn th\u1ef1c t\u1ebf v\u1eeba \u0111a chi\u1ec1u v\u1eeba theo ki\u1ec3u M\u1ef9.<\/p>\n\n\n\n – Khi Quy\u1ec1n ch\u1ecdn th\u1ef1c c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c m\u00f4 h\u00ecnh h\u00f3a b\u1eb1ng ph\u01b0\u01a1ng tr\u00ecnh vi ph\u00e2n t\u1eebng ph\u1ea7n, th\u00ec c\u00e1c ph\u01b0\u01a1ng ph\u00e1p kh\u00e1c bi\u1ec7t h\u1eefu h\u1ea1n \u0111\u1ec3 \u0111\u1ecbnh gi\u00e1 quy\u1ec1n ch\u1ecdn \u0111\u00f4i khi \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c \u00e1p d\u1ee5ng. M\u1eb7c d\u00f9 nhi\u1ec1u b\u00e0i b\u00e1o ROV ban \u0111\u1ea7u th\u1ea3o lu\u1eadn v\u1ec1 ph\u01b0\u01a1ng ph\u00e1p n\u00e0y,[41] vi\u1ec7c s\u1eed d\u1ee5ng n\u00f3 t\u01b0\u01a1ng \u0111\u1ed1i hi\u1ebfm ng\u00e0y nay \u2014 \u0111\u1eb7c bi\u1ec7t l\u00e0 trong s\u1ed1 c\u00e1c h\u1ecdc vi\u00ean \u2014 do s\u1ef1 tinh vi to\u00e1n h\u1ecdc c\u1ea7n thi\u1ebft; Ch\u00fang c\u0169ng kh\u00f4ng th\u1ec3 d\u1ec5 d\u00e0ng \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c s\u1eed d\u1ee5ng cho c\u00e1c v\u1ea5n \u0111\u1ec1 chi\u1ec1u cao.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Nhi\u1ec1u ph\u01b0\u01a1ng ph\u00e1p kh\u00e1c, ch\u1ee7 y\u1ebfu nh\u1eafm v\u00e0o c\u00e1c h\u1ecdc vi\u00ean, \u0111\u00e3 \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c ph\u00e1t tri\u1ec3n \u0111\u1ec3 \u0111\u1ecbnh gi\u00e1 quy\u1ec1n ch\u1ecdn th\u1ef1c s\u1ef1. Ch\u00fang th\u01b0\u1eddng s\u1eed d\u1ee5ng c\u00e1c k\u1ecbch b\u1ea3n d\u00f2ng ti\u1ec1n \u0111\u1ec3 d\u1ef1 b\u00e1o ph\u00e2n ph\u1ed1i l\u1ee3i nhu\u1eadn trong t\u01b0\u01a1ng lai v\u00e0 kh\u00f4ng d\u1ef1a tr\u00ean vi\u1ec7c h\u1ea1n ch\u1ebf c\u00e1c gi\u1ea3 \u0111\u1ecbnh t\u01b0\u01a1ng t\u1ef1 nh\u01b0 c\u00e1c gi\u1ea3 \u0111\u1ecbnh l\u00e0m n\u1ec1n t\u1ea3ng cho c\u00e1c gi\u1ea3i ph\u00e1p d\u1ea1ng \u0111\u00f3ng (ho\u1eb7c th\u1eadm ch\u00ed l\u00e0 s\u1ed1) \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c th\u1ea3o lu\u1eadn. C\u00e1c b\u1ed5 sung g\u1ea7n \u0111\u00e2y bao g\u1ed3m ph\u01b0\u01a1ng ph\u00e1p Datar\u2013Mathews (c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c hi\u1ec3u l\u00e0 s\u1ef1 m\u1edf r\u1ed9ng c\u1ee7a m\u00f4 h\u00ecnh Monte Carlo \u0111a k\u1ecbch b\u1ea3n gi\u00e1 tr\u1ecb hi\u1ec7n t\u1ea1i r\u00f2ng v\u1edbi s\u1ef1 \u0111i\u1ec1u ch\u1ec9nh \u0111\u1ed1i v\u1edbi t\u00e2m l\u00fd s\u1ee3 r\u1ee7i ro v\u00e0 ra quy\u1ebft \u0111\u1ecbnh kinh t\u1ebf),ph\u01b0\u01a1ng ph\u00e1p ho\u00e0n tr\u1ea3 m\u1edd,v\u00e0 m\u00f4 ph\u1ecfng v\u1edbi ph\u01b0\u01a1ng ph\u00e1p ng\u01b0\u1ee1ng t\u1eadp th\u1ec3 d\u1ee5c \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c t\u1ed1i \u01b0u h\u00f3a.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Ng\u01b0\u1ee3c l\u1ea1i, c\u00e1c ph\u01b0\u01a1ng ph\u00e1p t\u1eadp trung v\u00e0o, v\u00ed d\u1ee5, \u0111\u1ecbnh gi\u00e1 quy\u1ec1n ch\u1ecdn th\u1ef1c trong thi\u1ebft k\u1ebf k\u1ef9 thu\u1eadt c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 ph\u1ee9c t\u1ea1p h\u01a1n. Ch\u00fang bao g\u1ed3m c\u00e1c ph\u00e2n t\u00edch d\u1ef1a tr\u00ean c\u00e1c quy t\u1eafc quy\u1ebft \u0111\u1ecbnh, k\u1ebft h\u1ee3p c\u00e1c c\u00e2n nh\u1eafc thi\u1ebft k\u1ebf v\u1eadt l\u00fd v\u00e0 quy\u1ebft \u0111\u1ecbnh qu\u1ea3n l\u00fd th\u00f4ng qua tuy\u00ean b\u1ed1 “n\u1ebfu-th\u00ec-kh\u00e1c” tr\u1ef1c quan, v\u00ed d\u1ee5: n\u1ebfu nhu c\u1ea7u cao h\u01a1n m\u1ed9t m\u1ee9c n\u0103ng l\u1ef1c s\u1ea3n xu\u1ea5t nh\u1ea5t \u0111\u1ecbnh, th\u00ec h\u00e3y m\u1edf r\u1ed9ng c\u00f4ng su\u1ea5t hi\u1ec7n c\u00f3, n\u1ebfu kh\u00f4ng th\u00ec kh\u00f4ng l\u00e0m g\u00ec c\u1ea3; C\u00e1ch ti\u1ebfp c\u1eadn n\u00e0y c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c k\u1ebft h\u1ee3p v\u1edbi c\u00e1c ph\u01b0\u01a1ng ph\u00e1p t\u1ed1i \u01b0u h\u00f3a to\u00e1n h\u1ecdc ti\u00ean ti\u1ebfn nh\u01b0 l\u1eadp tr\u00ecnh ng\u1eabu nhi\u00ean v\u00e0 t\u1ed1i \u01b0u h\u00f3a m\u1ea1nh m\u1ebd \u0111\u1ec3 t\u00ecm ra c\u00e1c bi\u1ebfn quy t\u1eafc quy\u1ebft \u0111\u1ecbnh v\u00e0 thi\u1ebft k\u1ebf t\u1ed1i \u01b0u. M\u1ed9t c\u00e1ch ti\u1ebfp c\u1eadn g\u1ea7n \u0111\u00e2y h\u01a1n c\u1ea3i c\u00e1ch v\u1ea5n \u0111\u1ec1 quy\u1ec1n ch\u1ecdn th\u1ef1c s\u1ef1 nh\u01b0 m\u1ed9t quy tr\u00ecnh quy\u1ebft \u0111\u1ecbnh Markov d\u1ef1a tr\u00ean d\u1eef li\u1ec7u, v\u00e0 s\u1eed d\u1ee5ng h\u1ecdc m\u00e1y ti\u00ean ti\u1ebfn nh\u01b0 h\u1ecdc t\u0103ng c\u01b0\u1eddng s\u00e2u \u0111\u1ec3 \u0111\u00e1nh gi\u00e1 m\u1ed9t lo\u1ea1t c\u00e1c chi\u1ebfn l\u01b0\u1ee3c th\u1ef1c hi\u1ec7n thi\u1ebft k\u1ebf v\u00e0 l\u1ef1a ch\u1ecdn th\u1ef1c t\u1ebf c\u00f3 th\u1ec3, r\u1ea5t ph\u00f9 h\u1ee3p v\u1edbi c\u00e1c h\u1ec7 th\u1ed1ng ph\u1ee9c t\u1ea1p v\u00e0 c\u00e1c d\u1ef1 \u00e1n \u0111\u1ea7u t\u01b0. Nh\u1eefng \u0111i\u1ec1u n\u00e0y gi\u00fap \u0111\u1ecbnh l\u01b0\u1ee3ng gi\u00e1 tr\u1ecb c\u1ee7a t\u00ednh linh ho\u1ea1t \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c thi\u1ebft k\u1ebf s\u1edbm trong thi\u1ebft k\u1ebf h\u1ec7 th\u1ed1ng v\u00e0 \/ ho\u1eb7c c\u00e1c d\u1ef1 \u00e1n \u0111\u1ea7u t\u01b0 kh\u00f4ng th\u1ec3 \u0111\u1ea3o ng\u01b0\u1ee3c. C\u00e1c ph\u01b0\u01a1ng ph\u00e1p gi\u00fap x\u1ebfp h\u1ea1ng c\u00e1c gi\u1ea3i ph\u00e1p thi\u1ebft k\u1ebf linh ho\u1ea1t theo th\u1ee9 t\u1ef1 so v\u1edbi nhau v\u00e0 do \u0111\u00f3 cho ph\u00e9p c\u00e1c chi\u1ebfn l\u01b0\u1ee3c l\u1ef1a ch\u1ecdn th\u1ef1c t\u1ebf t\u1ed1t nh\u1ea5t \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c th\u1ef1c hi\u1ec7n hi\u1ec7u qu\u1ea3 v\u1ec1 chi ph\u00ed trong qu\u00e1 tr\u00ecnh ho\u1ea1t \u0111\u1ed9ng. Nh\u1eefng ph\u01b0\u01a1ng ph\u00e1p n\u00e0y \u0111\u00e3 \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c \u00e1p d\u1ee5ng trong nhi\u1ec1u tr\u01b0\u1eddng h\u1ee3p s\u1eed d\u1ee5ng trong thi\u1ebft k\u1ebf v\u00e0 quy ho\u1ea1ch c\u01a1 s\u1edf h\u1ea1 t\u1ea7ng h\u00e0ng kh\u00f4ng v\u0169 tr\u1ee5, qu\u1ed1c ph\u00f2ng, n\u0103ng l\u01b0\u1ee3ng, giao th\u00f4ng, v\u0169 tr\u1ee5 v\u00e0 n\u01b0\u1edbc.<\/p>\n\n\n\n H\u1ea1n ch\u1ebf<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n S\u1ef1 li\u00ean quan c\u1ee7a c\u00e1c t\u00f9y ch\u1ecdn Real, ngay c\u1ea3 khi l\u00e0 m\u1ed9t khu\u00f4n kh\u1ed5 t\u01b0 duy, c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 b\u1ecb h\u1ea1n ch\u1ebf do c\u00e1c c\u00e2n nh\u1eafc v\u1ec1 th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng, t\u1ed5 ch\u1ee9c v\u00e0 \/ ho\u1eb7c k\u1ef9 thu\u1eadt. Do \u0111\u00f3, khi khu\u00f4n kh\u1ed5 \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c s\u1eed d\u1ee5ng, tr\u01b0\u1edbc ti\u00ean nh\u00e0 ph\u00e2n t\u00edch ph\u1ea3i \u0111\u1ea3m b\u1ea3o r\u1eb1ng ROV c\u00f3 li\u00ean quan \u0111\u1ebfn d\u1ef1 \u00e1n \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c \u0111\u1ec1 c\u1eadp. Nh\u1eefng c\u00e2n nh\u1eafc n\u00e0y nh\u01b0 sau.<\/p>\n\n\n\n – \u0110\u1eb7c \u0111i\u1ec3m th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng: Nh\u01b0 \u0111\u00e3 th\u1ea3o lu\u1eadn \u1edf tr\u00ean, th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng v\u00e0 m\u00f4i tr\u01b0\u1eddng c\u01a1 b\u1ea3n c\u1ee7a d\u1ef1 \u00e1n ph\u1ea3i l\u00e0 n\u01a1i “thay \u0111\u1ed5i r\u00f5 r\u00e0ng nh\u1ea5t”, v\u00e0 “ngu\u1ed3n, xu h\u01b0\u1edbng v\u00e0 s\u1ef1 ph\u00e1t tri\u1ec3n” trong cung v\u00e0 c\u1ea7u s\u1ea3n ph\u1ea9m, t\u1ea1o ra “t\u00ednh linh ho\u1ea1t, d\u1ef1 ph\u00f2ng v\u00e0 bi\u1ebfn \u0111\u1ed9ng” [26] d\u1eabn \u0111\u1ebfn t\u00f9y ch\u1ecdn. N\u1ebfu kh\u00f4ng c\u00f3 \u0111i\u1ec1u n\u00e0y, khung NPV s\u1ebd ph\u00f9 h\u1ee3p h\u01a1n.<\/p>\n\n\n\n – C\u00e2n nh\u1eafc v\u1ec1 t\u1ed5 ch\u1ee9c: C\u00e1c l\u1ef1a ch\u1ecdn th\u1ef1c s\u1ef1 l\u00e0 “\u0111\u1eb7c bi\u1ec7t quan tr\u1ecdng \u0111\u1ed1i v\u1edbi c\u00e1c doanh nghi\u1ec7p c\u00f3 m\u1ed9t v\u00e0i \u0111\u1eb7c \u0111i\u1ec3m ch\u00ednh\u201d, v\u00e0 c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 \u00edt li\u00ean quan h\u01a1n. T\u1ed5ng quan, \u0111i\u1ec1u quan tr\u1ecdng l\u00e0 ph\u1ea3i xem x\u00e9t nh\u1eefng \u0111i\u1ec1u sau \u0111\u00e2y \u0111\u1ec3 x\u00e1c \u0111\u1ecbnh r\u1eb1ng khung RO \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c \u00e1p d\u1ee5ng:<\/p>\n\n\n\n 1. Chi\u1ebfn l\u01b0\u1ee3c c\u1ee7a c\u00f4ng ty ph\u1ea3i th\u00edch \u1ee9ng v\u1edbi c\u00e1c s\u1ef1 ki\u1ec7n ng\u1eabu nhi\u00ean. M\u1ed9t s\u1ed1 t\u1eadp \u0111o\u00e0n ph\u1ea3i \u0111\u1ed1i m\u1eb7t v\u1edbi s\u1ef1 c\u1ee9ng nh\u1eafc v\u1ec1 t\u1ed5 ch\u1ee9c v\u00e0 kh\u00f4ng th\u1ec3 ph\u1ea3n \u1ee9ng v\u1edbi nh\u1eefng thay \u0111\u1ed5i c\u1ee7a th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng; trong tr\u01b0\u1eddng h\u1ee3p n\u00e0y, c\u00e1ch ti\u1ebfp c\u1eadn NPV l\u00e0 ph\u00f9 h\u1ee3p.<\/p>\n\n\n\n 2. Tr\u00ean th\u1ef1c t\u1ebf, doanh nghi\u1ec7p ph\u1ea3i \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c \u0111\u1ecbnh v\u1ecb sao cho c\u00f3 lu\u1ed3ng th\u00f4ng tin ph\u00f9 h\u1ee3p v\u00e0 c\u01a1 h\u1ed9i h\u00e0nh \u0111\u1ed9ng. \u0110\u00e2y th\u01b0\u1eddng s\u1ebd l\u00e0 m\u1ed9t nh\u00e0 l\u00e3nh \u0111\u1ea1o th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng v\u00e0 \/ ho\u1eb7c m\u1ed9t c\u00f4ng ty t\u1eadn h\u01b0\u1edfng t\u00ednh kinh t\u1ebf v\u1ec1 quy m\u00f4 v\u00e0 ph\u1ea1m vi.<\/p>\n\n\n\n 3. Qu\u1ea3n l\u00fd ph\u1ea3i hi\u1ec3u c\u00e1c l\u1ef1a ch\u1ecdn, c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 x\u00e1c \u0111\u1ecbnh v\u00e0 t\u1ea1o ra ch\u00fang, v\u00e0 th\u1ef1c hi\u1ec7n ch\u00fang m\u1ed9t c\u00e1ch th\u00edch h\u1ee3p. \u0110i\u1ec1u n\u00e0y tr\u00e1i ng\u01b0\u1ee3c v\u1edbi c\u00e1c nh\u00e0 l\u00e3nh \u0111\u1ea1o doanh nghi\u1ec7p t\u1eadp trung v\u00e0o vi\u1ec7c duy tr\u00ec hi\u1ec7n tr\u1ea1ng v\u00e0 \/ ho\u1eb7c thu nh\u1eadp k\u1ebf to\u00e1n ng\u1eafn h\u1ea1n.<\/p>\n\n\n\n 4. T\u00ecnh h\u00ecnh t\u00e0i ch\u00ednh c\u1ee7a doanh nghi\u1ec7p ph\u1ea3i sao cho c\u00f3 kh\u1ea3 n\u0103ng t\u00e0i tr\u1ee3 cho d\u1ef1 \u00e1n khi \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c y\u00eau c\u1ea7u (t\u1ee9c l\u00e0 ph\u00e1t h\u00e0nh c\u1ed5 phi\u1ebfu, h\u1ea5p th\u1ee5 th\u00eam n\u1ee3 v\u00e0 \/ ho\u1eb7c s\u1eed d\u1ee5ng d\u00f2ng ti\u1ec1n \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c t\u1ea1o ra n\u1ed9i b\u1ed9); xem Ph\u00e2n t\u00edch b\u00e1o c\u00e1o t\u00e0i ch\u00ednh. Qu\u1ea3n l\u00fd ph\u1ea3i, t\u01b0\u01a1ng \u1ee9ng, c\u00f3 quy\u1ec1n truy c\u1eadp th\u00edch h\u1ee3p v\u00e0o v\u1ed1n n\u00e0y.<\/p>\n\n\n\n 5. Qu\u1ea3n l\u00fd ph\u1ea3i \u1edf v\u1ecb tr\u00ed \u0111\u1ec3 th\u1ef1c hi\u1ec7n, trong ch\u1eebng m\u1ef1c m\u1ed9t s\u1ed1 t\u00f9y ch\u1ecdn th\u1ef1c s\u1ef1 l\u00e0 \u0111\u1ed9c quy\u1ec1n (thu\u1ed9c s\u1edf h\u1eefu ho\u1eb7c th\u1ef1c hi\u1ec7n b\u1edfi m\u1ed9t c\u00e1 nh\u00e2n ho\u1eb7c m\u1ed9t c\u00f4ng ty) trong khi nh\u1eefng quy\u1ec1n ch\u1ecdn kh\u00e1c \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c chia s\u1ebb (ch\u1ec9 c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 (ch\u1ec9) \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c th\u1ef1c hi\u1ec7n b\u1edfi nhi\u1ec1u b\u00ean).<\/p>\n\n\n\n C\u00e2n nh\u1eafc k\u1ef9 thu\u1eadt<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n Nh\u1eefng h\u1ea1n ch\u1ebf v\u1ec1 vi\u1ec7c s\u1eed d\u1ee5ng c\u00e1c m\u00f4 h\u00ecnh n\u00e0y ph\u00e1t sinh do s\u1ef1 t\u01b0\u01a1ng ph\u1ea3n gi\u1eefa Quy\u1ec1n ch\u1ecdn th\u1ef1c v\u00e0 c\u00e1c t\u00f9y ch\u1ecdn t\u00e0i ch\u00ednh, m\u00e0 ch\u00fang \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c ph\u00e1t tri\u1ec3n ban \u0111\u1ea7u. S\u1ef1 kh\u00e1c bi\u1ec7t ch\u00ednh l\u00e0 c\u01a1 s\u1edf th\u01b0\u1eddng kh\u00f4ng th\u1ec3 giao d\u1ecbch \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c – v\u00ed d\u1ee5: ch\u1ee7 s\u1edf h\u1eefu nh\u00e0 m\u00e1y kh\u00f4ng th\u1ec3 d\u1ec5 d\u00e0ng b\u00e1n nh\u00e0 m\u00e1y m\u00e0 anh ta c\u00f3 quy\u1ec1n ch\u1ecdn. Ngo\u00e0i ra, b\u1ea3n th\u00e2n quy\u1ec1n ch\u1ecdn th\u1ef1c c\u0169ng c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 kh\u00f4ng th\u1ec3 giao d\u1ecbch \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c – v\u00ed d\u1ee5: ch\u1ee7 s\u1edf h\u1eefu nh\u00e0 m\u00e1y kh\u00f4ng th\u1ec3 b\u00e1n quy\u1ec1n m\u1edf r\u1ed9ng nh\u00e0 m\u00e1y c\u1ee7a m\u00ecnh cho m\u1ed9t b\u00ean kh\u00e1c, ch\u1ec9 c\u00f3 anh ta m\u1edbi c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 \u0111\u01b0a ra quy\u1ebft \u0111\u1ecbnh n\u00e0y (tuy nhi\u00ean, m\u1ed9t s\u1ed1 l\u1ef1a ch\u1ecdn th\u1ef1c s\u1ef1 c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c b\u00e1n, v\u00ed d\u1ee5: quy\u1ec1n s\u1edf h\u1eefu m\u1ed9t l\u00f4 \u0111\u1ea5t tr\u1ed1ng l\u00e0 m\u1ed9t l\u1ef1a ch\u1ecdn th\u1ef1c s\u1ef1 \u0111\u1ec3 ph\u00e1t tri\u1ec3n \u0111\u1ea5t \u0111\u00f3 trong t\u01b0\u01a1ng lai). Ngay c\u1ea3 khi th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng t\u1ed3n t\u1ea1i – \u0111\u1ed1i v\u1edbi c\u01a1 s\u1edf ho\u1eb7c cho quy\u1ec1n ch\u1ecdn – trong h\u1ea7u h\u1ebft c\u00e1c tr\u01b0\u1eddng h\u1ee3p, thanh kho\u1ea3n th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng b\u1ecb h\u1ea1n ch\u1ebf (ho\u1eb7c kh\u00f4ng). Cu\u1ed1i c\u00f9ng, ngay c\u1ea3 khi c\u00f4ng ty c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 ch\u1ee7 \u0111\u1ed9ng th\u00edch \u1ee9ng v\u1edbi nh\u1eefng thay \u0111\u1ed5i c\u1ee7a th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng, v\u1eabn c\u00f2n ph\u1ea3i x\u00e1c \u0111\u1ecbnh m\u00f4 h\u00ecnh ph\u00f9 h\u1ee3p \u0111\u1ec3 gi\u1ea3m gi\u00e1 c\u00e1c y\u00eau c\u1ea7u b\u1ed3i th\u01b0\u1eddng trong t\u01b0\u01a1ng lai<\/p>\n\n\n\n Nh\u1eefng kh\u00f3 kh\u0103n, sau \u0111\u00f3 l\u00e0:<\/p>\n\n\n\n 1. Nh\u01b0 tr\u00ean, c\u00e1c v\u1ea5n \u0111\u1ec1 d\u1eef li\u1ec7u ph\u00e1t sinh khi \u01b0\u1edbc t\u00ednh \u0111\u1ea7u v\u00e0o m\u00f4 h\u00ecnh ch\u00ednh. \u1ede \u0111\u00e2y, v\u00ec gi\u00e1 tr\u1ecb ho\u1eb7c gi\u00e1 c\u1ee7a c\u01a1 s\u1edf kh\u00f4ng th\u1ec3 \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c quan s\u00e1t (tr\u1ef1c ti\u1ebfp), n\u00ean s\u1ebd lu\u00f4n c\u00f3 m\u1ed9t s\u1ed1 (nhi\u1ec1u) s\u1ef1 kh\u00f4ng ch\u1eafc ch\u1eafn v\u1ec1 gi\u00e1 tr\u1ecb c\u1ee7a n\u00f3 (t\u1ee9c l\u00e0 gi\u00e1 giao ngay) v\u00e0 bi\u1ebfn \u0111\u1ed9ng (ph\u1ee9c t\u1ea1p h\u01a1n b\u1edfi s\u1ef1 kh\u00f4ng ch\u1eafc ch\u1eafn v\u1ec1 h\u00e0nh \u0111\u1ed9ng c\u1ee7a ban qu\u1ea3n l\u00fd trong t\u01b0\u01a1ng lai).<\/p>\n\n\n\n 2. Th\u01b0\u1eddng r\u1ea5t kh\u00f3 \u0111\u1ec3 n\u1eafm b\u1eaft c\u00e1c quy t\u1eafc li\u00ean quan \u0111\u1ebfn t\u1eadp th\u1ec3 d\u1ee5c v\u00e0 c\u00e1c h\u00e0nh \u0111\u1ed9ng do h\u1eadu qu\u1ea3 c\u1ee7a qu\u1ea3n l\u00fd. H\u01a1n n\u1eefa, m\u1ed9t d\u1ef1 \u00e1n c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 c\u00f3 m\u1ed9t danh m\u1ee5c c\u00e1c t\u00f9y ch\u1ecdn th\u1ef1c \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c nh\u00fang, m\u1ed9t s\u1ed1 trong \u0111\u00f3 c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 lo\u1ea1i tr\u1eeb l\u1eabn nhau.<\/p>\n\n\n\n 3. Nh\u1eefng kh\u00f3 kh\u0103n v\u1ec1 l\u00fd thuy\u1ebft, nghi\u00eam tr\u1ecdng h\u01a1n, c\u0169ng c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 ph\u00e1t sinh.<\/p>\n\n\n\n – C\u00e1c m\u00f4 h\u00ecnh \u0111\u1ecbnh gi\u00e1 quy\u1ec1n ch\u1ecdn \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c x\u00e2y d\u1ef1ng d\u1ef1a tr\u00ean logic \u0111\u1ecbnh gi\u00e1 h\u1ee3p l\u00fd. \u1ede \u0111\u00e2y, v\u1ec1 c\u01a1 b\u1ea3n: (a) gi\u1ea3 \u0111\u1ecbnh r\u1eb1ng ng\u01b0\u1eddi ta c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 t\u1ea1o ra m\u1ed9t “danh m\u1ee5c \u0111\u1ea7u t\u01b0 ph\u00f2ng h\u1ed9” bao g\u1ed3m m\u1ed9t quy\u1ec1n ch\u1ecdn v\u00e0 c\u1ed5 phi\u1ebfu “delta” c\u1ee7a c\u01a1 s\u1edf. (b) C\u00e1c l\u1eadp lu\u1eadn ch\u00eanh l\u1ec7ch gi\u00e1 sau \u0111\u00f3 cho ph\u00e9p \u01b0\u1edbc t\u00ednh gi\u00e1 c\u1ee7a quy\u1ec1n ch\u1ecdn ng\u00e0y h\u00f4m nay; xem \u0110\u1ecbnh gi\u00e1 h\u1ee3p l\u00fd \u00a7 B\u1ea3o hi\u1ec3m r\u1ee7i ro Delta. (c) Khi c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 ph\u00f2ng ng\u1eeba r\u1ee7i ro lo\u1ea1i n\u00e0y, v\u00ec b\u1ea3o hi\u1ec3m r\u1ee7i ro delta v\u00e0 \u0111\u1ecbnh gi\u00e1 trung l\u1eadp r\u1ee7i ro gi\u1ed1ng h\u1ec7t nhau v\u1ec1 m\u1eb7t to\u00e1n h\u1ecdc, n\u00ean \u0111\u1ecbnh gi\u00e1 trung l\u1eadp r\u1ee7i ro c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c \u00e1p d\u1ee5ng, nh\u01b0 tr\u01b0\u1eddng h\u1ee3p c\u1ee7a h\u1ea7u h\u1ebft c\u00e1c m\u00f4 h\u00ecnh \u0111\u1ecbnh gi\u00e1 quy\u1ec1n ch\u1ecdn. (d) Tuy nhi\u00ean, theo ROV, quy\u1ec1n ch\u1ecdn v\u00e0 (th\u01b0\u1eddng) c\u01a1 s\u1edf c\u1ee7a n\u00f3 r\u00f5 r\u00e0ng kh\u00f4ng \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c giao d\u1ecbch, v\u00e0 vi\u1ec7c h\u00ecnh th\u00e0nh m\u1ed9t danh m\u1ee5c \u0111\u1ea7u t\u01b0 ph\u00f2ng ng\u1eeba r\u1ee7i ro s\u1ebd r\u1ea5t kh\u00f3 kh\u0103n, n\u1ebfu kh\u00f4ng mu\u1ed1n n\u00f3i l\u00e0 kh\u00f4ng th\u1ec3.<\/p>\n\n\n\n – C\u00e1c m\u00f4 h\u00ecnh quy\u1ec1n ch\u1ecdn ti\u00eau chu\u1ea9n: (a) Gi\u1ea3 s\u1eed r\u1eb1ng c\u00e1c \u0111\u1eb7c \u0111i\u1ec3m r\u1ee7i ro c\u1ee7a quy\u1ec1n ch\u1ecdn c\u01a1 b\u1ea3n kh\u00f4ng thay \u0111\u1ed5i trong su\u1ed1t v\u00f2ng \u0111\u1eddi c\u1ee7a quy\u1ec1n ch\u1ecdn, th\u01b0\u1eddng \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c th\u1ec3 hi\u1ec7n th\u00f4ng qua gi\u1ea3 \u0111\u1ecbnh bi\u1ebfn \u0111\u1ed9ng kh\u00f4ng \u0111\u1ed5i. (b) Do \u0111\u00f3, m\u1ed9t t\u1ef7 l\u1ec7 phi r\u1ee7i ro ti\u00eau chu\u1ea9n c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c \u00e1p d\u1ee5ng l\u00e0m t\u1ef7 l\u1ec7 chi\u1ebft kh\u1ea5u t\u1ea1i m\u1ed7i th\u1eddi \u0111i\u1ec3m quy\u1ebft \u0111\u1ecbnh, cho ph\u00e9p \u0111\u1ecbnh gi\u00e1 trung l\u1eadp r\u1ee7i ro. Tuy nhi\u00ean, theo ROV: (a) h\u00e0nh \u0111\u1ed9ng c\u1ee7a ban qu\u1ea3n l\u00fd th\u1ef1c s\u1ef1 thay \u0111\u1ed5i c\u00e1c \u0111\u1eb7c \u0111i\u1ec3m r\u1ee7i ro c\u1ee7a d\u1ef1 \u00e1n \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c \u0111\u1ec1 c\u1eadp, v\u00e0 do \u0111\u00f3 (b) T\u1ef7 l\u1ec7 ho\u00e0n v\u1ed1n b\u1eaft bu\u1ed9c c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 kh\u00e1c nhau t\u00f9y thu\u1ed9c v\u00e0o tr\u1ea1ng th\u00e1i n\u00e0o \u0111\u00e3 \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c th\u1ef1c hi\u1ec7n v\u00e0 ph\u00ed b\u1ea3o hi\u1ec3m kh\u00f4ng c\u00f3 r\u1ee7i ro s\u1ebd \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c y\u00eau c\u1ea7u, l\u00e0m m\u1ea5t hi\u1ec7u l\u1ef1c (v\u1ec1 m\u1eb7t k\u1ef9 thu\u1eadt) gi\u1ea3 \u0111\u1ecbnh trung l\u1eadp r\u1ee7i ro.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Nh\u1eefng v\u1ea5n \u0111\u1ec1 n\u00e0y \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c gi\u1ea3i quy\u1ebft th\u00f4ng qua m\u1ed9t s\u1ed1 gi\u1ea3 \u0111\u1ecbnh li\u00ean quan \u0111\u1ebfn nhau:<\/p>\n\n\n\n 1. Nh\u01b0 \u0111\u00e3 th\u1ea3o lu\u1eadn \u1edf tr\u00ean, c\u00e1c v\u1ea5n \u0111\u1ec1 d\u1eef li\u1ec7u th\u01b0\u1eddng \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c gi\u1ea3i quy\u1ebft b\u1eb1ng c\u00e1ch s\u1eed d\u1ee5ng m\u00f4 ph\u1ecfng d\u1ef1 \u00e1n ho\u1eb7c proxy \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c li\u1ec7t k\u00ea. Nhi\u1ec1u ph\u01b0\u01a1ng ph\u00e1p m\u1edbi kh\u00e1c nhau – xem v\u00ed d\u1ee5 nh\u01b0 nh\u1eefng ph\u01b0\u01a1ng ph\u00e1p \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c m\u00f4 t\u1ea3 \u1edf tr\u00ean – c\u0169ng gi\u1ea3i quy\u1ebft nh\u1eefng v\u1ea5n \u0111\u1ec1 n\u00e0y.<\/p>\n\n\n\n 2. C\u0169ng nh\u01b0 tr\u00ean, c\u00e1c quy t\u1eafc t\u1eadp th\u1ec3 d\u1ee5c c\u1ee5 th\u1ec3 th\u01b0\u1eddng c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c cung c\u1ea5p b\u1eb1ng c\u00e1ch m\u00e3 h\u00f3a ch\u00fang trong m\u1ed9t c\u00e2y nh\u1ecb th\u1ee9c ri\u00eang bi\u1ec7t;<\/p>\n\n\n\n 3. C\u00e1c v\u1ea5n \u0111\u1ec1 l\u00fd thuy\u1ebft:<\/p>\n\n\n\n – \u0110\u1ec3 s\u1eed d\u1ee5ng c\u00e1c m\u00f4 h\u00ecnh \u0111\u1ecbnh gi\u00e1 quy\u1ec1n ch\u1ecdn ti\u00eau chu\u1ea9n \u1edf \u0111\u00e2y, b\u1ea5t ch\u1ea5p nh\u1eefng kh\u00f3 kh\u0103n li\u00ean quan \u0111\u1ebfn \u0111\u1ecbnh gi\u00e1 h\u1ee3p l\u00fd, c\u00e1c h\u1ecdc vi\u00ean ch\u1ea5p nh\u1eadn “h\u01b0 c\u1ea5u” r\u1eb1ng quy\u1ec1n ch\u1ecdn th\u1ef1c v\u00e0 d\u1ef1 \u00e1n c\u01a1 b\u1ea3n \u0111\u1ec1u \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c giao d\u1ecbch: c\u00e1i g\u1ecdi l\u00e0 ph\u01b0\u01a1ng ph\u00e1p t\u1eeb ch\u1ed1i tr\u00e1ch nhi\u1ec7m t\u00e0i s\u1ea3n \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c b\u00e1n tr\u00ean th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng (MAD). M\u1eb7c d\u00f9 \u0111\u00e2y l\u00e0 m\u1ed9t gi\u1ea3 \u0111\u1ecbnh m\u1ea1nh m\u1ebd, nh\u01b0ng ng\u01b0\u1eddi ta ch\u1ec9 ra r\u1eb1ng m\u1ed9t h\u01b0 c\u1ea5u t\u01b0\u01a1ng t\u1ef1 tr\u00ean th\u1ef1c t\u1ebf c\u1ee7ng c\u1ed1 \u0111\u1ecbnh gi\u00e1 NPV \/ DCF ti\u00eau chu\u1ea9n (v\u00e0 s\u1eed d\u1ee5ng m\u00f4 ph\u1ecfng nh\u01b0 tr\u00ean).<\/p>\n\n\n\n – \u0110\u1ec3 gi\u1ea3i quy\u1ebft th\u1ef1c t\u1ebf l\u00e0 c\u00e1c \u0111\u1eb7c \u0111i\u1ec3m thay \u0111\u1ed5i l\u00e0m m\u1ea5t hi\u1ec7u l\u1ef1c vi\u1ec7c s\u1eed d\u1ee5ng t\u1ef7 l\u1ec7 chi\u1ebft kh\u1ea5u kh\u00f4ng \u0111\u1ed5i, m\u1ed9t s\u1ed1 nh\u00e0 ph\u00e2n t\u00edch s\u1eed d\u1ee5ng “ph\u01b0\u01a1ng ph\u00e1p sao ch\u00e9p danh m\u1ee5c \u0111\u1ea7u t\u01b0”, tr\u00e1i ng\u01b0\u1ee3c v\u1edbi \u0111\u1ecbnh gi\u00e1 trung l\u1eadp r\u1ee7i ro v\u00e0 s\u1eeda \u0111\u1ed5i m\u00f4 h\u00ecnh c\u1ee7a h\u1ecd t\u01b0\u01a1ng \u1ee9ng. Theo c\u00e1ch ti\u1ebfp c\u1eadn n\u00e0y, (a) ch\u00fang t\u00f4i “sao ch\u00e9p” d\u00f2ng ti\u1ec1n tr\u00ean quy\u1ec1n ch\u1ecdn b\u1eb1ng c\u00e1ch n\u1eafm gi\u1eef tr\u00e1i phi\u1ebfu phi r\u1ee7i ro v\u00e0 tr\u00e1i phi\u1ebfu c\u01a1 b\u1ea3n theo t\u1ef7 l\u1ec7 ch\u00ednh x\u00e1c. Sau \u0111\u00f3, (b) v\u00ec d\u00f2ng ti\u1ec1n c\u1ee7a quy\u1ec1n ch\u1ecdn v\u00e0 danh m\u1ee5c \u0111\u1ea7u t\u01b0 s\u1ebd lu\u00f4n gi\u1ed1ng h\u1ec7t nhau, theo c\u00e1c \u0111\u1ed1i s\u1ed1 ch\u00eanh l\u1ec7ch gi\u00e1, gi\u00e1 tr\u1ecb c\u1ee7a ch\u00fang c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 (ph\u1ea3i) \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c \u0111\u00e1nh \u0111\u1ed3ng ng\u00e0y h\u00f4m nay v\u00e0 (c) kh\u00f4ng c\u1ea7n chi\u1ebft kh\u1ea5u.<\/p>\n\n\n\n L\u1ecbch s\u1eed k\u1ef9 thu\u1eadt<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n Trong khi c\u00e1c nh\u00e0 qu\u1ea3n l\u00fd doanh nghi\u1ec7p \u0111\u00e3 \u0111\u01b0a ra quy\u1ebft \u0111\u1ecbnh \u0111\u1ea7u t\u01b0 v\u1ed1n trong nhi\u1ec1u th\u1ebf k\u1ef7, thu\u1eadt ng\u1eef “l\u1ef1a ch\u1ecdn th\u1ef1c s\u1ef1” l\u00e0 t\u01b0\u01a1ng \u0111\u1ed1i m\u1edbi v\u00e0 \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c \u0111\u1eb7t ra b\u1edfi Gi\u00e1o s\u01b0 Stewart Myers c\u1ee7a Tr\u01b0\u1eddng Qu\u1ea3n l\u00fd MIT Sloan v\u00e0o n\u0103m 1977. N\u0103m 1930, Irving Fisher \u0111\u00e3 vi\u1ebft r\u00f5 r\u00e0ng v\u1ec1 “c\u00e1c l\u1ef1a ch\u1ecdn” c\u00f3 s\u1eb5n cho m\u1ed9t ch\u1ee7 doanh nghi\u1ec7p (L\u00fd thuy\u1ebft quan t\u00e2m, II.VIII). Tuy nhi\u00ean, vi\u1ec7c m\u00f4 t\u1ea3 c\u00e1c c\u01a1 h\u1ed9i nh\u01b0 “quy\u1ec1n ch\u1ecdn th\u1ef1c s\u1ef1” \u0111\u00e3 theo sau s\u1ef1 ph\u00e1t tri\u1ec3n c\u1ee7a c\u00e1c k\u1ef9 thu\u1eadt ph\u00e2n t\u00edch cho c\u00e1c l\u1ef1a ch\u1ecdn t\u00e0i ch\u00ednh, ch\u1eb3ng h\u1ea1n nh\u01b0 Black-Scholes v\u00e0o n\u0103m 1973. Nh\u01b0 v\u1eady, thu\u1eadt ng\u1eef “quy\u1ec1n ch\u1ecdn th\u1ef1c” g\u1eafn ch\u1eb7t v\u1edbi c\u00e1c ph\u01b0\u01a1ng th\u1ee9c quy\u1ec1n ch\u1ecdn n\u00e0y.<\/p>\n\n\n\n L\u1ef1a ch\u1ecdn th\u1ef1c s\u1ef1 ng\u00e0y nay l\u00e0 m\u1ed9t l\u0129nh v\u1ef1c t\u00edch c\u1ef1c c\u1ee7a nghi\u00ean c\u1ee9u h\u1ecdc thu\u1eadt. Gi\u00e1o s\u01b0 Lenos Trigeorgis \u0111\u00e3 l\u00e0 m\u1ed9t t\u00ean tu\u1ed5i h\u00e0ng \u0111\u1ea7u trong nhi\u1ec1u n\u0103m, xu\u1ea5t b\u1ea3n m\u1ed9t s\u1ed1 cu\u1ed1n s\u00e1ch v\u00e0 b\u00e0i b\u00e1o h\u1ecdc thu\u1eadt c\u00f3 \u1ea3nh h\u01b0\u1edfng. C\u00e1c h\u1ecdc gi\u1ea3 ti\u00ean phong kh\u00e1c trong l\u0129nh v\u1ef1c n\u00e0y bao g\u1ed3m Gi\u00e1o s\u01b0 Michael Brennan, Eduardo Schwartz, Avinash Dixit v\u00e0 Robert Pindyck (hai ng\u01b0\u1eddi sau, t\u00e1c gi\u1ea3 c\u1ee7a v\u0103n b\u1ea3n ti\u00ean phong trong ng\u00e0nh h\u1ecdc). M\u1ed9t h\u1ed9i ngh\u1ecb h\u1ecdc thu\u1eadt v\u1ec1 c\u00e1c l\u1ef1a ch\u1ecdn th\u1ef1c \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c t\u1ed5 ch\u1ee9c h\u00e0ng n\u0103m (H\u1ed9i ngh\u1ecb qu\u1ed1c t\u1ebf h\u00e0ng n\u0103m v\u1ec1 c\u00e1c l\u1ef1a ch\u1ecdn th\u1ef1c).<\/p>\n\n\n\n Trong s\u1ed1 nh\u1eefng ng\u01b0\u1eddi kh\u00e1c, kh\u00e1i ni\u1ec7m n\u00e0y \u0111\u00e3 \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c “ph\u1ed5 bi\u1ebfn” b\u1edfi Michael J. Mauboussin, khi \u0111\u00f3 l\u00e0 chi\u1ebfn l\u01b0\u1ee3c gia \u0111\u1ea7u t\u01b0 tr\u01b0\u1edfng c\u1ee7a Hoa K\u1ef3 cho Credit Suisse First Boston. \u00d4ng s\u1eed d\u1ee5ng c\u00e1c l\u1ef1a ch\u1ecdn th\u1ef1c t\u1ebf \u0111\u1ec3 gi\u1ea3i th\u00edch kho\u1ea3ng c\u00e1ch gi\u1eefa c\u00e1ch th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng ch\u1ee9ng kho\u00e1n \u0111\u1ecbnh gi\u00e1 m\u1ed9t s\u1ed1 doanh nghi\u1ec7p v\u00e0 “gi\u00e1 tr\u1ecb n\u1ed9i t\u1ea1i” cho c\u00e1c doanh nghi\u1ec7p \u0111\u00f3. Trigeorgis c\u0169ng \u0111\u00e3 m\u1edf r\u1ed9ng ti\u1ebfp x\u00fac v\u1edbi c\u00e1c l\u1ef1a ch\u1ecdn th\u1ef1c t\u1ebf th\u00f4ng qua c\u00e1c b\u00e0i b\u00e1o gi\u00e1o d\u00e2n trong c\u00e1c \u1ea5n ph\u1ea9m nh\u01b0 The Wall Street Journal. [25] S\u1ef1 ph\u1ed5 bi\u1ebfn n\u00e0y \u0111\u1ebfn n\u1ed7i ROV hi\u1ec7n l\u00e0 m\u1ed9t ch\u01b0\u01a1ng tr\u00ecnh ti\u00eau chu\u1ea9n trong c\u00e1c b\u1eb1ng c\u1ea5p t\u00e0i ch\u00ednh sau \u0111\u1ea1i h\u1ecdc, v\u00e0 th\u01b0\u1eddng, ngay c\u1ea3 trong ch\u01b0\u01a1ng tr\u00ecnh gi\u1ea3ng d\u1ea1y MBA t\u1ea1i nhi\u1ec1u Tr\u01b0\u1eddng Kinh doanh.<\/p>\n\n\n\n G\u1ea7n \u0111\u00e2y, c\u00e1c l\u1ef1a ch\u1ecdn th\u1ef1c s\u1ef1 \u0111\u00e3 \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c s\u1eed d\u1ee5ng trong chi\u1ebfn l\u01b0\u1ee3c kinh doanh, cho c\u1ea3 m\u1ee5c \u0111\u00edch \u0111\u1ecbnh gi\u00e1 v\u00e0 nh\u01b0 m\u1ed9t khung kh\u00e1i ni\u1ec7m. \u00dd t\u01b0\u1edfng coi c\u00e1c kho\u1ea3n \u0111\u1ea7u t\u01b0 chi\u1ebfn l\u01b0\u1ee3c l\u00e0 quy\u1ec1n ch\u1ecdn \u0111\u00e3 \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c Timothy Luehrman ph\u1ed5 bi\u1ebfn trong hai b\u00e0i b\u00e1o c\u1ee7a HBR:”V\u1ec1 m\u1eb7t t\u00e0i ch\u00ednh, m\u1ed9t chi\u1ebfn l\u01b0\u1ee3c kinh doanh gi\u1ed1ng nh\u01b0 m\u1ed9t lo\u1ea1t c\u00e1c l\u1ef1a ch\u1ecdn, h\u01a1n l\u00e0 m\u1ed9t lo\u1ea1t c\u00e1c d\u00f2ng ti\u1ec1n t\u0129nh”. C\u01a1 h\u1ed9i \u0111\u1ea7u t\u01b0 \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c v\u1ebd trong m\u1ed9t “kh\u00f4ng gian quy\u1ec1n ch\u1ecdn” v\u1edbi k\u00edch th\u01b0\u1edbc “bi\u1ebfn \u0111\u1ed9ng” & gi\u00e1 tr\u1ecb tr\u00ean chi ph\u00ed (“NPVq”).<\/p>\n\n\n\n Luehrman c\u0169ng l\u00e0 \u0111\u1ed3ng t\u00e1c gi\u1ea3 v\u1edbi William Teichner m\u1ed9t nghi\u00ean c\u1ee9u \u0111i\u1ec3n h\u00ecnh c\u1ee7a Tr\u01b0\u1eddng Kinh doanh Harvard, Arundel Partners: The Sequel Project, v\u00e0o n\u0103m 1992, \u0111\u00e2y c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 l\u00e0 nghi\u00ean c\u1ee9u \u0111i\u1ec3n h\u00ecnh \u0111\u1ea7u ti\u00ean c\u1ee7a tr\u01b0\u1eddng kinh doanh d\u1ea1y ROV. Ph\u1ea3n \u00e1nh “xu h\u01b0\u1edbng ch\u1ee7 \u0111\u1ea1o” c\u1ee7a ROV, Gi\u00e1o s\u01b0 Robert C. Merton \u0111\u00e3 th\u1ea3o lu\u1eadn v\u1ec1 nh\u1eefng \u0111i\u1ec3m thi\u1ebft y\u1ebfu c\u1ee7a Arundel trong B\u00e0i gi\u1ea3ng gi\u1ea3i Nobel n\u0103m 1997. Arundel li\u00ean quan \u0111\u1ebfn m\u1ed9t nh\u00f3m c\u00e1c nh\u00e0 \u0111\u1ea7u t\u01b0 \u0111ang xem x\u00e9t mua b\u1ea3n quy\u1ec1n ph\u1ea7n ti\u1ebfp theo \u0111\u1ed1i v\u1edbi danh m\u1ee5c c\u00e1c b\u1ed9 phim truy\u1ec7n ch\u01b0a \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c ph\u00e1t h\u00e0nh. \u0110\u1eb7c bi\u1ec7t, c\u00e1c nh\u00e0 \u0111\u1ea7u t\u01b0 ph\u1ea3i x\u00e1c \u0111\u1ecbnh gi\u00e1 tr\u1ecb c\u1ee7a quy\u1ec1n ph\u1ea7n ti\u1ebfp theo tr\u01b0\u1edbc khi b\u1ea5t k\u1ef3 b\u1ed9 phim \u0111\u1ea7u ti\u00ean n\u00e0o \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c s\u1ea3n xu\u1ea5t. T\u1ea1i \u0111\u00e2y, c\u00e1c nh\u00e0 \u0111\u1ea7u t\u01b0 ph\u1ea3i \u0111\u1ed1i m\u1eb7t v\u1edbi hai l\u1ef1a ch\u1ecdn ch\u00ednh. H\u1ecd c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 s\u1ea3n xu\u1ea5t m\u1ed9t b\u1ed9 phim g\u1ed1c v\u00e0 ph\u1ea7n ti\u1ebfp theo c\u00f9ng m\u1ed9t l\u00fac ho\u1eb7c h\u1ecd c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 ch\u1edd \u0111\u1ee3i \u0111\u1ec3 quy\u1ebft \u0111\u1ecbnh ph\u1ea7n ti\u1ebfp theo sau khi b\u1ed9 phim g\u1ed1c \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c ph\u00e1t h\u00e0nh. C\u00e1ch ti\u1ebfp c\u1eadn th\u1ee9 hai, \u00f4ng n\u00f3i, cung c\u1ea5p t\u00f9y ch\u1ecdn kh\u00f4ng l\u00e0m ph\u1ea7n ti\u1ebfp theo trong tr\u01b0\u1eddng h\u1ee3p b\u1ed9 phim g\u1ed1c kh\u00f4ng th\u00e0nh c\u00f4ng. T\u00f9y ch\u1ecdn th\u1ef1c n\u00e0y c\u00f3 gi\u00e1 tr\u1ecb kinh t\u1ebf v\u00e0 c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c \u0111\u1ecbnh gi\u00e1 b\u1eb1ng ti\u1ec1n b\u1eb1ng c\u00e1ch s\u1eed d\u1ee5ng m\u00f4 h\u00ecnh \u0111\u1ecbnh gi\u00e1 quy\u1ec1n ch\u1ecdn.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" \u0110\u1ecbnh gi\u00e1 quy\u1ec1n ch\u1ecdn th\u1ef1c, c\u00f2n th\u01b0\u1eddng \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c g\u1ecdi l\u00e0 ph\u00e2n t\u00edch quy\u1ec1n ch\u1ecdn th\u1ef1c, (ROV ho\u1eb7c ROA) \u00e1p d\u1ee5ng c\u00e1c k\u1ef9 thu\u1eadt \u0111\u1ecbnh gi\u00e1 quy\u1ec1n ch\u1ecdn cho c\u00e1c quy\u1ebft \u0111\u1ecbnh ng\u00e2n s\u00e1ch v\u1ed1n. B\u1ea3n th\u00e2n m\u1ed9t l\u1ef1a ch\u1ecdn th\u1ef1c s\u1ef1 l\u00e0 quy\u1ec1n – nh\u01b0ng kh\u00f4ng ph\u1ea3i l\u00e0 ngh\u0129a v\u1ee5 – th\u1ef1c hi\u1ec7n m\u1ed9t s\u1ed1 […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","template":"","meta":{"footnotes":""},"doc_category":[5],"doc_tag":[],"class_list":["post-40","docs","type-docs","status-publish","hentry","doc_category-dau-tu"],"year_month":"2026-04","word_count":10701,"total_views":0,"reactions":{"happy":0,"normal":0,"sad":0},"author_info":{"author_nicename":"admin","author_url":"https:\/\/a.funds.io.vn\/?author=1"},"doc_category_info":[{"term_name":"\u0110\u1ea7u t\u01b0","term_url":"https:\/\/a.funds.io.vn\/?doc_category=dau-tu"}],"doc_tag_info":[],"author_list":[{"ID":"1","user_login":"admin","display_name":"admin","id":"1"}],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/a.funds.io.vn\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/docs\/40","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/a.funds.io.vn\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/docs"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/a.funds.io.vn\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/docs"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/a.funds.io.vn\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/a.funds.io.vn\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=40"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/a.funds.io.vn\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/docs\/40\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":41,"href":"https:\/\/a.funds.io.vn\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/docs\/40\/revisions\/41"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/a.funds.io.vn\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=40"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"doc_category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/a.funds.io.vn\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fdoc_category&post=40"},{"taxonomy":"doc_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/a.funds.io.vn\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fdoc_tag&post=40"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}